According to reports, the Osaka World Expo in Japan is scheduled to host the “United States National Day” event on July 19.
To attend the event, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will visit Japan next week. This will be his first visit to Japan since taking office and also marks his first trip to Japan since the start of the April trade talks between the U.S. and Japan.
The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on the 10th, citing sources from the Japanese government, that Japan is seeking to have a discussion with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about tariff issues during his upcoming visit to Japan next week.
However, Bloomberg quoted an American senior official saying that Mnuchin’s visit is primarily as the head of the U.S. delegation at the Expo and will not include formal bilateral discussions or trade discussions.
△Bloomberg report screenshot (Center image shows U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin)
Japan’s “Rudeness” Sparks “Strong Outrage”
The news of the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s impending visit to Japan has been closely watched, undoubtedly due to the impasse in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan.
Since the U.S. government announced the implementation of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” in April this year, Japan was one of the first countries to engage in tariff negotiations with the U.S.
Previously, the Japanese government was somewhat optimistic, believing that the relatively successful summit meeting between the U.S. and Japan in February would help push for an early agreement on the tariff negotiations between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also repeatedly emphasized that Japan’s substantial investment and strategic position in the U.S. are sufficient to warrant special treatment.
“Compared to other countries, Japan is the largest foreign investor in the United States, creating the most jobs for it. Our basic principle is to protect our national interests rather than impose tariffs through trade.”
However, this confidence has been chilled by reality.
Since the start of the negotiations, Japan has consistently demanded the U.S. withdraw the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” and insisted on bundling these with automobile tariffs and steel/aluminum tariffs for negotiation.
The US side not only explicitly rejected the demands put forward by Japan but also pressured the Japanese government to expand its imports of American automobiles, rice, and other goods, while demanding that Japan actively reduce its trade deficit with the US.
In June this year, Shigeru Ishiba, the Prime Minister of Japan, engaged in discussions on tariff issues during the G7 summit held in Canada. However, the US-Japan tariff negotiations did not develop in a direction favorable to Japan, with the rates instead rising.
On July 7th this month, Trump announced in a letter to leaders of 14 countries on social media that tariffs would be imposed starting from August 1st, including Japan, which is an important Asian ally of the United States. The so-called “equal tariff” rate for Japan will be raised to 25%.
For Japan, the 25% tariff rate is one percentage point higher than the previously suspended “equal tariff” rate under the Trump administration, considered a significant pressure from the US.
Regarding the US’s tariff letter, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated at a meeting held at the Prime Minister’s official residence on August 8th that it was “very regrettable” that the US had raised tariffs again through correspondence. He instructed relevant ministers to continue negotiations until August 1st to seek an agreement that could protect national interests.
On the same day, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party convened a meeting at their headquarters. Koichi Noda, the chairman of the party’s policy research council, expressed strong displeasure over the way the US notified Japan of the tariff increase through a letter, stating that such diplomatic behavior is unacceptable. He criticized the content of the letter as “unacceptable”.
“Unconditional following of the US is not feasible”
The tariffs set to take effect on August 1st have also caused widespread impact on the Japanese political scene, which is preparing for the Senate election.
Currently, Japan is holding its Senate election campaign, with voting scheduled for July 20th. This Senate election is crucial for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Last year, the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party lost its majority in the House of Representatives elections. If the ruling coalition continues to lose seats in the Senate elections, Shinzo Abe may be forced to resign.
On July 3, 2025, local time, banners for the Senate election were hung outside the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building in Japan.
As the ruling party was facing a tight situation in the Senate elections, the latest notification from the United States that Japan’s 25% tariff rate had exceeded the “24%” announced in April, led many within the Liberal Democratic Party to feel disappointed. Some insiders admitted that this would not be beneficial for the elections, while members of the Komeito Party also expressed concerns about “the resistance likely to increase.”
Yoshihide Suga, the leader of Japan’s largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, criticized the government’s performance in the Japanese-US trade negotiations.
“(The Japanese chief negotiator) Taro Aso made his seventh visit to the United States without even meeting with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, feeling as though he had done his work, but in reality, it feels like he is getting further away from his goal,” he said.
As the Senate elections approach, Yoshihide Suga stated on July 10 during an election campaign event in Sapporo City, “The Prime Minister should lead in negotiations with Trump. If not, we will have to take over.”
A recent public opinion poll showed that the opposition camp has higher popularity than the ruling coalition, with nearly half of respondents hoping that the ruling alliance formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party fails to reach the threshold of more than half of the seats in the Senate elections.
Compared to other countries that received Trump’s “tariff threat letter,” Japan might feel particularly “deeply disheartened.” According to Japanese media, Japan has always believed itself to be an American ally and would be treated differently, enjoying what they call “special treatment” in terms of tariff issues. However, the recent “backhanded blow” from Trump’s latest notice has deeply disappointed Japan over its allies.
The Nikkei Asian website reports that Japan took the lead in conducting tariff negotiations with the United States, and Trump even met with Shiro Arakawa at the Oval Office, at one point creating a hopeful atmosphere. However, the situation has now drastically changed, with Japan becoming the first country to receive a tax increase notification. “Trump’s tariff letter shattered Japan’s expectations for special relations.”
△Screenshot from the Nikkei Asian website report
Currently, the Yoshimasa Shimojima administration still hopes to reach an agreement with the US before the new tariffs take effect on August 1. However, there are opinions suggesting that even if the US negotiation team reaches an agreement, the final agreement could be overturned at any time. After all, such “change of heart” is something the US has been known for.
Regarding the US’s changing policies and betrayal of allies, Tetsuya Fukuyama, the chairman of the “Chusan Talks Association,” warned that the Japanese government should strengthen economic cooperation with other countries to avoid getting into a deadlock.
“Such arbitrary policies by the US will not bring benefits to the US but will harm it, which is very unwise. Therefore, the Japanese government should see through the essence and cooperate with countries around the world to prevent Japan from falling into a deadlock.”
△Tetsuya Fukuyama (Photo)
Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama recently also said that Japan’s unconditional following of the US or persuading the US to abandon harming other countries’ interests is not feasible. Only by enhancing its independence and reducing its reliance on the US can Japan make the right choice.