7月9日“大限”已过，8月1日又逐渐临近，特朗普的关税耐心似乎正在告罄。
尽管各国谈判团队仍在竞相寻找避免惩罚性关税的解决方案，但这位美国总统已开始单方面设定关税税率。据新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，特朗普在社交媒体上发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。
据媒体报道，特朗普在写给墨西哥总统和欧盟委员会主席的信中称，墨西哥未能有效阻止芬太尼流入美国，欧盟与美国的贸易逆差不公平。他暗示两个贸易伙伴仍可采取措施缓解关税，否则税率可能进一步上调。特朗普仍继续单方面发出信函设定税率，但同时仍留有一点回旋余地。
据新华社消息，特朗普本周还宣布，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。新闻称，近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他在美国全国广播公司新闻台10日播出的采访中还说，其他尚未收到关税信的贸易伙伴可能面临15%至20%的全面关税。
白宫曾承诺90天内达成多项贸易协议，但迄今仅与英国、越南达成协议。
威胁升级 谈判窗口收窄
特朗普对长达数月谈判进展缓慢的不耐烦越发凸显。媒体称，白宫可能在未来几天继续发出单方面函件，对那些被总统认为不再值得谈判的国家设定关税水平。
Analysis indicates that for countries reliant on the US trade, the negotiation window is rapidly closing, and they must make impossible choices before Trump’s extreme stance: submission or prepare for battle.
Wilbur Ross, former US Secretary of Commerce, stated on Thursday that Trump is fully prepared to push tariffs forward.
The real question is whether Trump will accept the conditions on their table? Will they add more chips? What will be the outcome? But worst of all, he is fully prepared to implement tariffs, and it seems like this is the end of the road.
Reports indicate that current US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is heading to Japan, while EU negotiators are focusing on auto and agricultural tariffs, hoping to reach at least a temporary agreement.
India has made progress in reaching a temporary trade deal. According to a Wall Street Journal article on Friday, July 11th, Eastern Time, media sources cited informed individuals saying that the US is striving to reach a temporary trade deal with India, which could potentially reduce the tariff rates planned for India below 20%.
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro encouraged Canada facing higher tariffs to continue negotiations on Friday, emphasizing that the door remains open.
Is This the Last “TACO?”
Trump is frustrated by what he calls the so-called “TACO trade”—that is, the market betting that “Trump always backs down on tariff threats,” but some believe this extension might be the last. Michael Strain, director of economic policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said:
I am worried we may face such a situation—I don’t know if it’s August 1st or in the future—but we will encounter him not just making empty gestures, but everyone believing he is making empty gestures. The more times this happens, the more I worry that the next one will be the real deadline.
Wall Street Journal previously mentioned that “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out, Trump always backs down) is used to summarize Trump’s inconsistent pattern on tariff policies—first making a high-priced threat, then retreating under market pressure or negotiation concessions.
The recurrence of the “TACO” phenomenon is mainly due to Trump having no choice but to make concessions when facing the market’s relentless urging, extending the duration of tariffs.