来源|直新闻 作者|郭永佶
In the tumultuous waters of Thailand’s political landscape, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha finds himself like a solitary ship amidst the tempestuous waves of family destiny and national strife. Faced with a murky fog of familial obligations and state disputes, his path ahead is shrouded in uncertainty.
On July 15th, just one day before the deadline for the Thai Constitutional Court to suspend Prayut Chan-o-cha’s presidency and require him to submit a defense, he applied for an extension, stating that “it was impossible to complete all the preparation work for the defense materials within the given period.”
The day before, the Thai National Anti-Corruption Commission convened a meeting and unanimously decided to establish an investigative team to probe into allegations of severe violations of ethical standards against Prayut Chan-o-cha. According to Thai law, “ethical standards” are a crucial concept encompassing integrity, conduct norms, as well as actions such as abuse of power, damage to national interests or public trust. Those under investigation face legal consequences including suspension of office, impeachment, lifetime political ban, and criminal charges.
From a wealthy princess to a political star, will Prayut Chan-o-cha, like his predecessors: his father Thaksin Shinawatra, uncle Somchai Srivongsa, and aunt Princess Sirindhorn, inevitably face the political persecution of being expelled or exiled?
Details of the “Record Room Incident” continue to emerge, with each family holding their own version of events.
On June 27th, during a nearly four-hour press conference in the northern province of Pha Khi Chao, the Chairman of the Cambodian ruling party and former Prime Minister Hun Sen addressed the “Record Room Incident”.
On June 27th, Hun Sen held a press conference in the border area between Cambodia and Thailand to respond to the leak of recordings.
Hun Sen stated that there had been some issues prior to his conversation with Prayut Chan-o-cha that left him quite displeased. Following a bloody conflict at the Cambodia-Thailand border in late May, Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Princess Sirindhorn had personally requested his assistance in easing tensions on the border.
In early June, the Thai and Cambodian military reached a consensus on the situation in the “triangle area” along their border. They agreed to adjust their troop deployments. Heng Seng and Prayut were grateful for this, but Thailand later claimed that Cambodia’s withdrawal had created misunderstandings, deeply disappointing him.
According to “Observer Network,” citing personal social media accounts of Hun Sen and several Cambodian and Thai media outlets on the 27th, Hun Sen emphasized that he did not initiate the leak of the recording himself but rather ensured transparency by forwarding it to the Standing Committee of the People’s Party and senior government officials, including the Senate, Parliament, and relevant departments, totaling about 80 people. He speculated that someone might have been angered by Pornchai’s inappropriate comments and decided to expose the recording.
Hun Sen stated that he never mentioned the Thai Army’s Second Division during the call. He also did not believe that General Bensin’s strong statements regarding the border situation were “disorderly”, as Pornchai had “humiliated his own people.” In the recording, Pornchai referred to Bensin as a “madman” and a “government opponent,” asking Hun Sen not to take Bensin’s words seriously.
Regarding Pornchai’s accusation that “Cambodian leaders are unprofessional,” Hun Sen criticized Heng Seng for failing to properly educate his daughter, more emotionally chargedly accusing it as a disrespect to both Heng Seng and his son, Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Ma Nay. On June 16th, Hun Sen threatened to close the Thai-Cambodian border and ban the import of Thai products, at which point Pornchai quickly responded, labeling such remarks “unprofessional” and announced the establishment of a working group to closely monitor the situation in the Thai-Cambodian conflict.
In February 2024, Hun Sen arrived in Thailand to visit Heng Seng on a private plane.
Furthermore, Hun Sen exposed Heng Seng’s attempt to “play sick” in court to dodge multiple lawsuits. Hun Sen recalled that when he visited Heng Seng in February last year, the latter was not showing any signs of illness, but he put on a neck brace for a photo.
Hun Sen stated that he initially kept silent out of respect, but due to the unethical behavior of Pekton and his disrespect towards the elders, he decided to come forward.
Heng Seng responds to the “Recording Gate” incident in a TV program
On July 9th, former Thai Prime Minister Heng Seng also addressed the event in a television program. Heng Seng mentioned, “The Recording Gate” incident occurred when Pekton told him he needed to meet with the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, as well as the Foreign Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office Secretary General, to have a conversation with Hung Seng. At that time, Pekton invited three people: the then Deputy Prime Minister and both Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, along with the Secretary-General of the Prime Minister’s Office, to join them. They waited for nearly three hours, but Hung Seng claimed he was sleeping, prompting Heng Seng to let his daughter and team leave first. However, Hung Seng then called back, which Heng Seng suspected was not because he was asleep but rather that he had already prepared the recording. Heng Seng said, “It’s heartbreaking how someone could do this.” Heng Seng insisted that the call was made by Hung Seng on purpose, which was an informal negotiation tactic, “We were ready to talk seriously, but he played a trick.”
Heng Seng also mentioned that after Thailand withdrew its troops, there were reports of Cambodia sending tens of thousands of soldiers to the border. He was extremely angry and directly called Koh Liang, asking him to pass on a message to Hung Seng, “Are our children leaders of both countries? Is he trying to start a war?” Moreover, Heng Seng believed that “Hung Seng is not destroying us; he is destroying himself because he has lost his credibility. Now no one wants to listen to him, nor dares to speak to him because they don’t know if their words will be recorded.”
When asked whether the thirty-year relationship with Hung Seng had been broken over this matter, Heng Seng said that he had never done anything to anger Hung Seng. If the other side was angry, it must be because of this incident. Heng Seng has always respected Hung Seng and referred to him as “Big Brother,” dismissing Hung Seng’s accusation of him “playing sick” with contempt: “Just say what you want to say.”
Regarding the escalation of border issues, he said that he had called Hou San to question him. Hou San asked what he wanted from him. He demanded an evacuation and Hou San agreed to allow Cambodian border troops to communicate with Thai troops, and to push for negotiations through the Joint Border Commission. However, just as Thai soldiers were preparing to close the checkpoints, Hou San was very angry and said that he had already withdrawn, yet the Thais closed the checkpoints and criticized Peungthong for saying “he’s not professional.” He believed, “Now there’s no need to worry, absolutely no war will occur, and conflict will not escalate to a point of bloodshed. It’s like a diving competition, who can hold out the longest.”
Has Peungthong been “manhandled”?
The call between Hou San and Peungthong took place on June 15th, but the recording of the conversation was first leaked online three days later on July 18th. Was this accidental or intentional? The events that occurred in the “recording scandal” afterward are also worth paying attention to.
On July 13th, soldiers from Thailand and Cambodia clashed at Ta Muen Thom Temple near Phnom Penh
On July 13th, a border conflict occurred between Thailand and Cambodia near Ta Muen Thom Temple in Siem Reap, resulting in a standoff between the two sides of the border, leading to disorderly scenes and tourists being urgently evacuated. Cambodia demanded an apology from Thailand, while Thailand stated it would uphold its sovereignty but avoid using force.
On July 15th, a brief but serious dispute erupted again at Ta Muen Thom Temple, where Cambodian soldiers and Thai soldiers engaged in physical altercations due to accusations by Thai soldiers of disrespect towards a Cambodian woman, sparking strong reactions from the Cambodian side, emphasizing the inviolability of sovereignty.
Meanwhile, on July 14th, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Mak announced the implementation of conscription for service starting from 2026 to address the ongoing tense border situation with Thailand.
In Cambodia, soldiers stationed near the Pailin Temple in Pailin Province, bordering Thailand, are a testament to the strategic pressure exercised by Hun Sen on the Thai government. This move aims to compel Thailand to concede on border issues while simultaneously undermining its domestic support base by exposing Phetbunthar’s “foreign policy blunders.”
For Cambodia, the public release of the recording has sparked nationalist sentiment within the country. By disclosing the recording, Hun Sen emphasizes Cambodia’s passive and justified role in the border conflict, not only reinforcing his image as an advocate for national interests but also providing societal backing for his family political legacy. This behavior may be intended to solidify his authority within Cambodia, divert public attention away from economic or social issues, and thereby gain more support for the Hun Ma Nay government.
In the recording, Phetbunthar also spoke disrespectfully about the commander of the Thai Army’s Second Division, Bhinsong. Moreover, Hun Sen specifically mentioned that he did not initiate such remarks himself; it was Phetbunthar who first “humiliated their own people.” This has made the conflict between the Thai military and the Phetchaburi Party (Phetbunthar is currently the party leader) public and intense, further exacerbating the opposition between the Sinh Vat family and the military and conservative forces.
The Thai military has long held a significant position in Thai politics, forming a political group with a well-developed ideology, economic foundation, and institutional safeguards. Historically, the military has intervened in politics under the guise of “maintaining national stability,” frequently manipulating Thai politics through military coups or judicial means. The rise of Thaksin Shinawatra as Prime Minister in 2001, characterized by his authoritarian style and purges of senior military figures, led to discontent among the Thai military. In 2006, a coup orchestrated by the military overshadowed Thaksin’s corruption allegations and political divisions, leading to the dissolution of the Phetchaburi Party (formerly known as the Phetchaburi Party), and Thaksin was forced into exile.
西那瓦家族的三位泰国前总理，从左至右：颂猜、他信、英拉
他信流亡后，其家族通过为泰党继续耕耘泰国政坛。2008年，他信的妹夫颂猜·旺沙瓦短暂担任总理，但很快被法院裁决下台。同年，他信的妹妹英拉·西那瓦当选泰国首位女总理，延续了家族的政治影响力。但英拉政府试图通过大赦法案让流亡的他信回国，又激化了与军方的矛盾。2014年，英拉政府因政治动荡再次被军方政变推翻，英拉被迫流亡。
而这一次，洪森可能依然想利用西那瓦家族与泰国军方长期对立的矛盾，削弱佩通坦的执政基础，间接影响泰国政局稳定，从而在泰柬边境谈判中占据优势。
事实上，佩通坦的为泰党目前已经因为盟友的退出而陷入少数派执政危机，需要通过内阁改组稳固支持，但前景并不乐观。因为泰国军方很有可能推动不信任投票或直接干预，导致现政府内阁垮台。7月13日，泰国国立发展研究院研究机构公布了一项题为“ 泰国政治何去何从？”的调查结果，42.37%的受访者认为总理佩通坦应该宣布辞职，另寻新总理；而在6位总理候选人中，又以前总理兼枢密院大臣巴育的呼声最高。
与此同时，泰国宪法赋予军方任命的250名上议院议员在总理选举中的关键投票权，这也为巴育可能的复出提供了制度保障。
但是，从同一份民调结果来看，目前泰国仍然有超过六成的人支持佩通坦。因此如果提前举行大选，巴育和泰国人团结建国党是否能有足够的民意基础以及获得足够的席位，变数仍然很大。