来源|直新闻 作者|郭永佶
In the tumultuous waters of Thailand’s political landscape, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha finds himself like a solitary ship amidst the tempestuous waves. Faced with the intertwining fates of his family and national disputes, the path ahead is shrouded in uncertainty.
On July 15th, just one day before the deadline for the Thai Constitutional Court to suspend Prayut Chan-o-cha’s presidency and require him to submit his defense materials, he applied for an extension, stating that “it was impossible to complete all the preparation work within the given period.”
The day before, the Thai National Anti-Corruption Commission convened a meeting and unanimously decided to establish an investigative team to launch an investigation into Prayut Chan-o-cha’s alleged severe violation of ethical standards. According to Thai law, “ethical standards” is a significant concept encompassing integrity, behavior norms, as well as actions such as abuse of power, damage to national interests or public trust. Those under investigation face legal consequences including suspension of office, impeachment, lifetime political ban, and criminal charges.
From a wealthy princess to a political star, will Prayut Chan-o-cha follow in the footsteps of his predecessors: his father Thaksin Shinawatra, uncle Sukhumvit Rajindra, and aunt Princess Sirindhorn?
Details of the “Recording Gate” continue to emerge, with each family holding their own version of events.
On June 27th, during a nearly four-hour press conference in the northern province of Phu Tho, the Chairman of the Cambodian ruling party and former Prime Minister Hun Sen addressed the “Recording Gate” incident.
On June 27th, Hun Sen held a press conference in the border area between Cambodia and Thailand to respond to the leak of recordings.
Hun Sen stated that there had been some issues prior to his conversation with Prayut Chan-o-cha that left him quite displeased. Following a bloody conflict at the Cambodia-Thailand border in late May, Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Princess Sirindhorn had personally requested his assistance in easing tensions along the border.
In early June, the Thai and Cambodian military reached a consensus on the situation in the “triangle area” along their border. They agreed to adjust their troop deployments. Heng Seng and Prayut also expressed gratitude to him for this agreement. However, Thailand later claimed that Cambodia’s withdrawal was a misunderstanding, causing him deep disappointment and betrayal.
According to “Observer Network,” citing personal social media accounts of Hun Sen and several Cambodian and Thai media outlets on the 27th, Hun Sen emphasized that he did not initiate the leak of the recording himself but rather ensured transparency by forwarding it to the Standing Committee of the People’s Party and senior government officials, including the Senate, Parliament, and relevant departments, totaling about 80 people. He speculated that someone might have been angered by Pornchai’s inappropriate remarks about the border situation and decided to expose the recording.
Hun Sen stated that he never mentioned the Thai Army’s Second Division during the conversation. He also did not believe that General Bensin’s strong statements about the border situation were out of place or that Pornchai had “humiliated his own people.” In the recording, Pornchai referred to Bensin as a “madman” and a “government opponent,” asking Hun Sen not to take Bensin’s words seriously.
Regarding Pornchai’s accusation that “Cambodian leaders are unprofessional,” Hun Sen criticized Heng Seng for failing to properly educate his daughter, and he was even more emotional in his criticism, stating that this was not only a disrespect to Heng Seng and his son, Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Ma Nay, but also an insult to the entire country. On June 16, Hun Sen threatened to close the Thai-Cambodian border and ban the import of Thai products, at which point Pornchai quickly responded, labeling such comments as “unprofessional” and announced the establishment of a working group to closely monitor the situation in the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.
In February 2024, Hun Sen arrived in Thailand to visit Heng Seng on a private plane.
Furthermore, Hun Sen exposed Heng Seng’s attempt to “play sick” in court to avoid multiple lawsuits. Hun Sen recalled that when he visited Heng Seng in February last year, the latter appeared healthy, but took a neck brace for a photo.
Hun Sen stated that he initially kept silent out of respect, but due to Phatthalung’s disrespect towards the elder and his lack of morality, he decided to speak out.
Heng Seng responds to the “Recording Gate” incident in a TV program
On July 9th, former Thai Prime Minister Heng Seng also addressed the event in a television program. Heng Seng mentioned, “The Recording Gate” incident occurred when Phatthalung told him he needed to meet with Khao Sanphet, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, as well as the Secretary-General of the Prime Minister’s Office, to have a conversation with Hun Sen. At that time, Phatthalung invited three individuals: the then Deputy Prime Minister and both Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, along with the Secretary-General of the Prime Minister’s Office, to join them for the meeting. However, they waited nearly three hours before Hun Sen claimed he was sleeping, prompting Heng Seng to let his daughter and team leave first. Nevertheless, Hun Sen later called, and Heng Seng suspected that the caller wasn’t actually asleep but had been preparing the recording all along. Heng Seng expressed, “It’s heartbreaking how this could happen.” Heng Seng insisted that the call was made by Hun Sen on purpose, which was an informal negotiation tactic, “We were ready to talk seriously, yet he played a trick.”
Heng Seng also mentioned that after Thailand withdrew its troops, there were reports of Cambodia sending tens of thousands of soldiers to the border. Heng Seng was extremely angry and directly called Khao Sanphet, asking him to relay the message to Hun Sen, “Are our children leaders of the two countries? Does he think war is necessary?” Moreover, Heng Seng believed that “Hun Sen is not destroying us; he is destroying himself because he has lost his credibility. Now no one wants to listen to him, nor dares to speak to him because they don’t know if their words will be recorded.”
When asked whether the thirty-year relationship with Hun Sen had broken over this matter, Heng Seng said he had never done anything to anger Hun Sen. If the other party was angry, it must be because of this incident. Heng Seng has always respected Hun Sen and referred to him as “Big Brother,” dismissing Hun Sen’s accusation of him “playing sick” with contempt: “Just say what you want to say.”
Regarding the escalation of border issues, he said that he had called Hou San to question him. Hou San asked what he wanted. He demanded an evacuation and Hou San agreed to allow Cambodian border troops to communicate with Thai troops, and to push for negotiations through the Joint Border Commission. However, just as Thai soldiers were preparing to close the checkpoints, Hou San became furious and said he had already withdrawn, yet the Thais closed the checkpoints and criticized Phatongtan for saying “he was not professional.” He believed, “Now there’s no need to worry, absolutely no war will occur, and conflict will not escalate to a point of bloodshed. It’s like a diving competition, who can hold out the longest.”
Has Phatongtan been “manhandled”?
The call between Hou San and Phatongtan took place on June 15th, but the recording of that call was first exposed online three days later on July 18th. This raises questions about whether it was an accident or intentional. Following the “recording scandal,” several events have occurred in the border between Thailand and Cambodia that are worth paying attention to.
On July 13th, clashes erupted at Ta Muen Thom Temple near the Thai-Cambodian border in Siem Reap Province.
On July 13th, border clashes occurred between Thailand and Cambodia at Ta Muen Thom Temple near Siem Reap Province, leading to a standoff between the two sides of the border, resulting in disorderly scenes and tourists being urgently evacuated. The Cambodian side demanded an apology from Thailand, while Thailand stated it would uphold its sovereignty but avoid using force.
On July 15th, a brief but serious dispute resurfaced at Ta Muen Thom Temple, where Cambodian soldiers and Thai soldiers engaged in physical altercations over allegations of disrespect towards a Cambodian woman by Thai soldiers, sparking strong reactions from the Cambodian side, emphasizing the inviolability of sovereignty.
On July 14th, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Mak announced the implementation of conscription from 2026 to address the ongoing tense border situation with Thailand.
In Cambodia, soldiers stationed near the Pagoda of Pago Pago in Province of Paek Seong, Cambodia, facing Thailand.
For Thailand, the public release of the recording likely represents a strategic pressure from Hun Sen on the Thai government, aiming to force Thailand to concede on border issues while exposing Phetbunthan’s “diplomatic blunders” to weaken its domestic support base.
For Cambodia, the public release of the recording has sparked nationalist sentiment within the country. Through the release of the recording, Hun Sen emphasized Cambodia’s passive and just role in the border conflict, not only reinforcing his image as an advocate for national interests but also providing societal support for his family political legacy. This behavior may be intended to consolidate his authority within Cambodia, divert public attention away from economic or social issues, and thereby gain more support for the Hun Ma Nay government.
In the recording, Phetbunthan also spoke disrespectfully about the commander of the Second Army Division of Thailand, Bhinsarai. Moreover, Hun Sen specifically mentioned that he did not initiate this content himself; it was Phetbunthan who first “humiliated their own people.” This made the conflict between the Thai military and the Phetchaburi Party (Phetbunthan is currently the party leader) public and intense, further exacerbating the opposition between the Sinh Vat family and the military and conservative forces.
The Thai military has long held an important position in Thai politics, forming a political group with a well-established ideology, economic foundation, and institutional guarantees. Historically, the military has intervened in politics under the guise of “maintaining national stability,” frequently manipulating Thai politics through military coups or judicial means. The rise of Thaksin Shinawatra as Prime Minister of Thailand in 2001, characterized by his authoritarian style and purges of senior military figures, led to discontent among the Thai military. In 2006, Thaksin was overthrown by the military after accusations of corruption and political divisions intensified, leading to the dissolution of the Phetchaburi Party (formerly known as the Phetchaburi Party), and Thaksin was forced into exile.
西那瓦家族的三位泰国前总理，从左至右：颂猜、他信、英拉
他信流亡后，其家族通过为泰党继续耕耘泰国政坛。2008年，他信的妹夫颂猜·旺沙瓦短暂担任总理，但很快被法院裁决下台。同年，他信的妹妹英拉·西那瓦当选泰国首位女总理，延续了家族的政治影响力。但英拉政府试图通过大赦法案让流亡的他信回国，又激化了与军方的矛盾。2014年，英拉政府因政治动荡再次被军方政变推翻，英拉被迫流亡。
而这一次，洪森可能依然想利用西那瓦家族与泰国军方长期对立的矛盾，削弱佩通坦的执政基础，间接影响泰国政局稳定，从而在泰柬边境谈判中占据优势。
事实上，佩通坦的为泰党目前已经因为盟友的退出而陷入少数派执政危机，需要通过内阁改组稳固支持，但前景并不乐观。因为泰国军方很有可能推动不信任投票或直接干预，导致现政府内阁垮台。7月13日，泰国国立发展研究院研究机构公布了一项题为“ 泰国政治何去何从？”的调查结果，42.37%的受访者认为总理佩通坦应该宣布辞职，另寻新总理；而在6位总理候选人中，又以前总理兼枢密院大臣巴育的呼声最高。
与此同时，泰国宪法赋予军方任命的250名上议院议员在总理选举中的关键投票权，这也为巴育可能的复出提供了制度保障。
但是，从同一份民调结果来看，目前泰国仍然有超过六成的人支持佩通坦。因此如果提前举行大选，巴育和泰国人团结建国党是否能有足够的民意基础以及获得足够的席位，变数仍然很大。