Xinhua News Agency, Tokyo, July 19th
Hot Questions | What are the highlights of Japan’s Senate election?
Chen Ze’an and Li Ziyue from Xinhua News Agency
The 27th session of the Japanese Dietary Council elections is set to take place on the 20th. According to Japanese media, the results of this election will determine the fate of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s cabinet. How is the ruling coalition currently performing? What is the future of the Suga cabinet? And what impact will this election have on the Japanese political landscape?
The Japanese Dietary Council has 248 seats, with members serving for six years and half of them being elected every three years. This time, the Senate election will compete for 125 seats, including 124 seats that will be up for renewal and one additional seat for a by-election.
The ruling coalition in Japan consists of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito Party. As the president of the LDP, Suga has set a goal for the coalition to maintain at least half of the Diet’s seats after the election. Currently, the LDP and Komeito Party together hold 75 seats in non-renewable seats, meaning both parties need to secure at least 50 seats.
However, according to Japanese media, it seems unlikely that the ruling coalition will achieve its election goals. The Yomiuri Shimbun predicts that the LDP might only secure around 30 seats, even with the addition of Komeito’s seats, making it difficult to surpass half. The Asahi Shimbun and Nikkei Shimbun believe that winning 50 seats is “extremely challenging” for the coalition.
Recent surveys conducted by several Japanese media outlets show that compared to the beginning of the campaign, the momentum of the ruling coalition is continuously weakening, with a continuous decline in nationwide support ratings. According to a poll conducted by Jiji Press from the 11th to the 14th of July, Suga’s cabinet support rate was only 20.8%, down 6.2 percentage points from last month; opposition rates rose to 55%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from last month.
In Japanese politics, a cabinet’s support rate below 30% is considered a “dangerous situation”; if it falls below 20%, it is seen as entering “the danger zone.”
In the congressional elections held in October last year, the ruling coalition failed to secure a majority of seats, becoming a minority government. Should the Senate election result in another defeat, losing its majority status, Shirakawa’s path to governance will become even more challenging.
The “Japan Times” predicted three possible outcomes for Shirakawa’s cabinet following this election.
The first scenario is that the ruling coalition maintains a majority in the Senate. This would allow the coalition to exert pressure on the initiatives led by the opposition party through its advantage in the Senate, allowing Shirakawa to continue governing.
The second scenario involves the ruling coalition failing to secure more than half of the Senate seats but Shirakawa continuing as Prime Minister. In this case, Shirakawa would not be directly removed from office. He might choose to incorporate another party into the coalition, maintaining a majority in the Senate through a “three-party coalition.”
The third scenario is that the ruling coalition fails to secure more than half of the Senate seats, and Shirakawa steps down, leading to a change in Japanese Prime Minister. Since the ruling coalition has lost its majority in both houses of Congress, every bill introduced by the government may have to yield to the opposition. There could be pressure from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) within the party to remove Shirakawa. If he resigns, the LDP will elect a new President, and Japan will also change its Prime Minister.
Analysts point out that there could also be a fourth outcome in this Senate election: after losing their majority in both houses of Congress, the opposition parties form an alliance to replace the ruling coalition. However, it seems that there are still significant differences among the opposition parties, making the likelihood of forming a “union cabinet” seem slim at present.
One noteworthy development in this Senate election is the strong momentum of the populist conservative party, the Kenseikai, during the campaign period. The party advocates for “Japanese priority” and exhibits strong nationalist tendencies, gathering popularity among conservatives and some young people.
Kenseikai secured one seat in the 2022 Senate election, entering the parliament for the first time, and won three seats in the House of Representatives last year.
The Asahi Shimbun predicts that the ruling party is expected to secure more than 10 seats in this election. Some analysts believe that if the party becomes a “key minority” in Japanese politics through this election, Japanese politics may further become conservative and right-leaning.