The United States and Japan are both getting worked up.
Trade negotiations between the two countries are still intense, but Trump has started to stir things up again.
On July 2nd, in response to Trump’s threat of imposing higher tariffs on Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe responded that Japan is the largest overseas investor in the US, creating the most job opportunities for the country. He lamented, “Rather than imposing tariffs, it would be better to maintain national interests through trade.”
However, the key point is that Trump doesn’t listen to him on this issue.
On July 1st, Trump declared, “We have been negotiating with Japan, but I don’t know if we can reach an agreement with them. To be honest, I don’t think so.”
Japan is very tough. They’ve been spoiled.
He added, “I like Japan… The new Prime Minister is also a very good person. But just like other countries, they have exploited the US for decades now, making it difficult to reach a fair agreement. For example, Japan won’t accept (US) rice, even when they are in urgent need of it. Other commodities are the same. Like cars, they exported millions of vehicles to the US, but over the past decade, we haven’t exported anything at all. They don’t buy, but they sell aggressively. This cannot be allowed.”
Trump threatened, “So I will send a letter to Japan: ‘If you cannot meet our demands, the tariffs on Japanese goods will be 30%, 35% or another number we decide upon.'”
It’s worth noting that Trump announced a global tax on April 2nd, with the tariff rate on Japan being 24%.
After rounds of talks, Trump even personally negotiated, only to end up with such a result!
Japan was astonished, and it is said that the Japanese government has hurriedly interrupted normal work to discuss countermeasures urgently.
Japan was somewhat confused. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the US had never brought up rice before, but Trump suddenly took such a stand, a Japanese diplomat stated, “We shouldn’t overemphasize Trump’s statements.”
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However, neglecting him is also not an option, as Trump is the President of the United States.
Therefore, we see that Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga responded by acknowledging Trump’s stance but did not comment on individual statements separately. However, Japan “will not sacrifice agriculture in its trade negotiations with the U.S.”
Offending Trump and preventing him from enjoying his privileges would certainly be a significant blow to the Japanese government.
But offending the Japanese farmers, who have been protesting, would undoubtedly lead to another round of criticism from the Japanese government.
Firstly, Trump was very disappointed and angry.
It’s worth noting that after taxing the world, Japan was the first negotiating partner for the U.S.
When a Japanese envoy came to the White House, Trump even participated in the negotiations personally, fully demonstrating his special regard for Japan.
What made the Japanese embarrassingly laughable was that, during the White House negotiations, Trump began tweeting 20 minutes after meeting him, declaring “significant progress has been made!”
And this timeline was set for other rooms where the U.S.-Japan negotiations were still underway, not yet completed half way through.
Moreover, what made the Japanese uncomfortable was that Trump liked to make jokes.
He said: “After the tariff policy was announced, many countries approached him, ‘Those countries eagerly called, kissing my ass (kissing my ass). They were eager to reach an agreement, saying ‘Please, sir, don’t add our tariffs, whatever you want us to do, sir.'”
One of them must have been Japan. As mentioned earlier, Japan was the first country to negotiate with the U.S.
Trump thought that Japan would easily concede, so he personally stepped in, expecting Japan to make the biggest concessions. This could also serve as a model for other negotiations. Japanese media even speculated that securing Japan would give Trump leverage in negotiations with China.
Who would have thought that the most likely target for extortion would now become the toughest opponent for the U.S.
So, it’s no wonder Trump lost his temper and started throwing things out of the window.
Second, Japan is helpless and cunning.
Negotiations are about to commence, yet the United States changes its stance three times a day now, applying extreme pressure. How can negotiations proceed then?
What troubles Japan is that the United States demands not only that Japan import more American goods but also that it pays for the current US military presence in Japan at four times the current amount, expects a significant appreciation of the yen to benefit from it, and requires joint measures with China…
It’s easy to please the United States, even wearing MAGA hats, but the real pain lies in the financial commitments. Moreover, as Japan’s largest trading partner, breaking away from China would be foolish; the catastrophic consequences of the “Plaza Accord” still haunt Japan.
So, after all these discussions, some key terms remain unbreakable.
Even during the recent G7 summit in Canada, Shigeru Ishiba met with Trump again, but he was also disappointed: “On certain issues, our views still differ. Automobiles represent a major national interest… We will continue to do everything possible to protect these interests.”
Japan is reluctant to concede because any concession could mean the end of Ishiba’s government.
Pushing forward or backing out, there’s no choice—Japan is tough this time, and it has to be.
It must be acknowledged that China’s firm stance has actually encouraged Japan. The Japanese have discovered that there is another path—to stand tall and squarely defend one’s interests while being admired worldwide.
Japan is willing to take a risk.
Or, rather, they are trying to drag things out until Trump loses patience, at which point the United States might step back.
Third, there’s also the possibility of a dramatic turn of events.
But after all, the United States is the United States, and Japan is Japan.
In past negotiations, the United States has always been dominant, and Japan has enjoyed the opportunity to show its support.
What’s frustrating is that, in an attempt to win back America’s favor, Japan has recently gone all out, even proactively offering advice to the United States:
I have a trick that can break China’s rare earth control.
My recycling technology is highly sophisticated; let’s collect more rare earth from old electronic appliances together…
Americans are probably fuming; with Japan resorting to this strategy, it seems they still need to look for rare earths in China, and how much help can it really be to the United States?
Therefore, both sides continue to engage in witty competition. The United States should continue to exert pressure on Japan. On the 2nd, Trump announced that the United States had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which not only serves as a show of its achievements but also further stimulates Japan.
So, it’s not ruled out that Japan might become impatient, might verbally toughen up but soften down internally, or perhaps habitually start off strong before softening, eventually presenting itself to the United States as a token of surrender.
Thus, don’t forget the Chinese’s stern warning: China firmly opposes any deal that sacrifices its interests for the sake of achieving so-called tariff reductions. Should such a situation arise, China will not accept it and will resolutely countermeasure to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
It must be acknowledged that regardless of the outcome, Japan must feel somewhat disappointed after this battle. The United States is becoming increasingly selfish, treating allies like dead comrades rather than friends, as if once willing to sacrifice themselves for the United States, now they are being stabbed first by the United States.
Looking at Japan’s latest public opinion polls, only 22% of Japanese trust the United States. Even within this 22%, 19% “somewhat” trust the United States, and only 3% “very” trust the United States.
The United States may have gained the upper hand, but one must remember that human sentiment is the greatest interest. When people lose faith in each other, it becomes harder to lead a team.