While the conflict in Ukraine and Russia continues, the chess game on the negotiation table is also turbulent. Following the second round of talks held at the beginning of June, the time for the third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine has yet to be determined. On July 1st, Russia stated that it was in consultation with Ukraine about the specific date for the third round of negotiations.
The delay in starting negotiations seems to have caused some subtle changes in the United States’ attitude recently. How should we evaluate the slight shifts in the US government’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and what impact will this have on the direction of the negotiations?
The “Three-Stage” Evolution of US-Ukraine Relations
Chen Yu, Deputy Director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations:
From one perspective, it’s clear that Trump and Zelenskyi’s attitude towards each other has been changing. At their first meeting, there was a fierce argument; at the Vatican, the atmosphere became more pragmatic; at the NATO summit, both sides gave high praise after the talks, considering progress had been made in issues such as military aid.
From Arguing to Military Sales Cooperation: The Deep Strategy Color of Russia Remains Unchanged
Chen Yu:
There could be two reasons behind this situation. On one hand, the United States realized that its previous overly aggressive policy towards Ukraine was not achieving substantial results, making Ukraine less likely to yield. Therefore, the United States attempted to adjust its policy and seek more feasible approaches. On the other hand, Ukraine has achieved certain results with the United States’ strategy, realizing that direct confrontation with Trump would not work. Instead, they are now engaging in similar strategies with Europe and Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine hopes to gain some tangible benefits from the United States, such as concessions in mineral agreements.
Transforming Military Aid into US Arms Sales
Using a mining enterprise’s joint fund to pay hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase weapons including Patriot missile systems.
Chen Yu:
However, although there have been some minor adjustments in the United States’ policy, the basic starting point remains unchanged. Its mediation of the conflict is still preparing for adjustments to its policy towards Russia. Therefore, I believe the United States is unlikely to exert excessive pressure on Russia.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is stirring multifaceted competition.