On the 8th local time, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the “Global Trade Update Report.” The report indicates that global trade is expected to grow by approximately $300 billion in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of about 1.5% in the first quarter alone, and it is anticipated that this growth rate will accelerate to 2% in the second quarter. Services continue to be the main engine of trade growth, and it is likely to maintain strong growth momentum.
UNCTAD stated that ongoing policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and signs of global growth slowdown pose risks for trade in the latter half of the year. Whether the second half of 2025 can continue to be resilient depends on policy clarity, the development of geopolitical economies, and the adaptability of supply chains. The new round of US tariffs has heightened the risk of trade fragmentation, and unilateral actions may escalate, affecting third countries and disrupting the stability of supply chains. (CCTV Zhu He)
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development