财联社7月10日讯（编辑 卞纯）
近期，美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评力度，指责后者在降息方面行动太慢。他还呼吁鲍威尔辞职，并表示将提名“想要降息的人”担任美联储主席。
然而，现实情况是，哪怕鲍威尔现在就卸任美联储主席，特朗普可能也无法很快获得他想要的降息。
分析认为，考虑到美联储的集体决策机制等种种原因，白宫在短期内无法对借贷成本产生太大影响。
美联储主席仅拥有1票投票权
特朗普希望通过任命一个能按总统意愿行事的人来取代鲍威尔，从而降低利率。但鲍威尔的美联储主席任期要到2026年5月才结束。他坚称不会提前辞职。
即使鲍威尔真的辞职，考虑到新任主席在美联储利率决策中仅拥有1票投票权，降息并非是他一人所能决定的。
美联储的货币政策决策部门是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）。FOMC 由12名委员组成，包括7名联邦储备系统理事、纽约联储主席，以及4名地方联储主席。作为联邦储备系统理事之一，美联储主席与其他理事及纽约联储主席一样，拥有永久投票权，在 FOMC 会议上拥有1票投票权。
调整利率需要FOMC多数成员的支持，这意味着，
新主席必须说服其多数同僚支持降息
美联储捍卫自身独立性
如果其他11位FOMC成员认为降息出于明显的政治目的，那么美联储新任主席很难，甚至可能无法说服他们支持降息。
目前，明显多数FOMC成员反对在9月前降息。
They believe that more time is needed to determine whether Trump’s trade war is driving inflation higher.
Jason Furman, a renowned economist at Harvard University and former chairman of the White House Council on Economic Affairs, stated, “The Federal Reserve Chairman only holds one vote among 12, and a politically charged Chairman will not receive majority support.”
Since the Federal Reserve was freed from the intense influence of the Treasury Department in the 1950s, Federal Reserve officials have always cautiously maintained their independence. They are not likely to give up defending their independence easily.
Trump may not have had the opportunity to completely redefine the Federal Reserve Board. Each of the seven members has a term of 14 years, with overlapping terms to prevent any president from gaining too much influence.
During Trump’s remaining presidency, only one member of the board—Adriana Culler, appointed by the Democrats—will be leaving their term. The other three members appointed by the Democrats could serve until the third decade of this century.
Even after Trump appoints a new Federal Reserve Chairman, if Powell is willing, he could still remain on the board. His 14-year term as a Federal Reserve Director is still three years away.
The Federal Reserve Chairman typically steps down after no longer leading the Fed, but there is an exception in history: Marina Echels, the former Chair of the Federal Reserve.
In 1948, under pressure from President Truman, Echels resigned as the Chair of the Federal Reserve but stayed on as a director for another three years. During this period, she remained a thorn in President Truman’s side.
The Federal Reserve cannot simply wave a magic wand and lower interest rates on most forms of borrowing, such as mortgages, credit cards, or car loans.
Instead, the Federal Reserve indirectly affects loan costs through a short-term rate that only banks use, which is rarely known to the public. This ensures the smooth operation of the financial system.
The connection between short-term interest rates and most forms of borrowing is far from tight.
Sometimes, when the Federal Reserve lowers the short-term federal funds rate, long-term rates such as U.S. Treasury bonds or mortgages actually rise.
In fact, even after the Federal Reserve significantly reduced the federal funds rate in 2023 and 2024, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate remained at a high of 6.67%.
Wall Street has significant influence.
The most significant factor affecting long-term rates is inflation. If investors believe that inflation is worsening, even if the Federal Reserve reduces the cost of short-term borrowing, they will demand higher long-term rates to compensate for the risks they are taking.
If the new Fed Chairman, under Trump’s request, cuts rates, investors may think this will lead to inflation, thereby demanding higher rates.
Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander Capital Markets, stated in a report to clients, “If the market worries that the Fed will not fulfill its role on inflation, you will see long-term yields rise.”