Since the 8th, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has adopted a “madman” mode, repeatedly launching rhetoric such as “how could Japan be underestimated by the United States” and “Japan must break free from American dependency,” with unprecedentedly strong language.
Shinzo Abe’s outburst stemmed from President Trump’s final tariff demand on social media. On the 7th, Trump announced in a letter to leaders of 14 countries, including Japan, announcing tariffs starting from August 1, which included Japan, a significant Asian ally of the United States.
On July 7th, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre displayed a letter from President Trump to South Korean President during a meeting. Source: Xinhua News Agency
Curiously, amid election pressure, Shinzo Abe’s sudden toughness is genuine or merely political theater? Why has Japan and the US been unable to reach an agreement? How did the Japan-US alliance collapse?
In terms of tariffs and military spending, the US demands too much
The persistent disagreement between Japan and the US stems from the US’s relentless pressure on Japan regarding tariffs and military spending.
According to incomplete statistics, Shinzo Abe has expressed dissatisfaction with the US’s tariff policies several times in recent months. On May 19th, he stated that he could not accept the high tariffs imposed on imported products like cars, emphasizing his determination to respond resolutely.
On June 16th, Shinzo Abe held talks with President Trump in Canada on tariff issues. Afterward, he admitted that he and Trump were unable to come to an agreement, with their differences unresolved.
On July 6th, Shinzo Abe stated that he would not easily compromise in negotiations with Washington. At the same time, Tokyo was trying to avoid imposing a 35% tariff on Japanese goods by Trump.
On July 8th, President Trump sent letters to various countries regarding new tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan, which will officially take effect from August 1. That day, Shinzo Abe expressed his “deep regret.”
In his view, it is essentially about continuing negotiations without changing the existing tax rates.
On July 9th, in response to the United States’ impending 25% tariff on Japan, Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan would unite internally to protect its national interests and would not compromise on matters of principle. He declared, “The tariff negotiations are a battle for our national interests, and we cannot tolerate being underestimated.”
On July 10th, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba once again voiced his stance on the matter, stating, “Japan must break away from dependence on the United States in areas such as security and energy, pursuing independence and autonomy.”
From Ishiba’s past statements on tariff issues, it is clear that he has consistently refused to yield in sectors critical to Japan’s core interests, opting instead for a strategy of delay. Analysts point out that Japan is an export-oriented economy, with the United States being one of its main markets for automobiles and other core industries. The imposition of tariffs by the United States represents a “heavy burden” that Japan cannot afford.
In addition to continuously extracting tariffs from Japan, the United States has also proposed military budgets far beyond what Japan can accept in defense issues, sparking dissatisfaction among the Japanese side. In early March, Colin Powell, the third-ranking official at the Pentagon and responsible for policy formulation, advocated during a Senate hearing on his appointment that Japan’s defense spending should be increased to 3% of its GDP.
During the Shangri-La Dialogue held in May, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also called on countries in the so-called “Indo-Pacific” region, including Japan, to increase their defense spending.
On June 21st, the U.S. government requested that Japan raise its defense spending ratio from the previously proposed 3% to 3.5% of GDP. The Japanese government, opposed to this demand, canceled the scheduled Security and Defense Council meeting between two countries, which was part of the “2+2” talks, due to take place in July.
Ishiba faces a crucial test: how to “win” this battle!
Shigeru Ishiba’s “hard-hitting” approach is not merely a diplomatic maneuver but also involves deep political maneuvers.
The 27th session of the Japanese Diet election is scheduled for July 20th. A recent public opinion survey shows that the opposition camp has more popularity than the ruling coalition, with nearly half of the respondents hoping that the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Public Ministries Party does not achieve the goal of reaching more than half of the seats.
Additionally, according to a poll released at the end of June, Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet enjoys a support rate of 24%, which has been in “dangerous waters” for four consecutive months. In Japanese politics, a cabinet support rate below 30% is considered entering “dangerous waters”; if it falls below 20%, it is considered falling into “downfall waters.” In the Tokyo Diet elections held on June 22nd, the Liberal Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat, achieving the lowest number of seats in history. The Tokyo Diet elections are seen as a “prelude to the Senate elections.”
Public opinion surveys indicate that the cabinet support rate of Shigeru Ishiba’s government has been declining recently. Some analysts point out that the results of this Senate election will determine Shigeru Ishiba’s political fate. If the ruling coalition fails to win more than half of the seats in this election, Shigeru Ishiba could face the possibility of resignation at any time.
In the situation where Shigeru Ishiba’s regime is in “dangerous waters,” coupled with such a crucial election approaching, facing continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Shigeru Ishiba is fighting hard to maintain his majority. Any significant concessions could potentially lead to domestic instability within his regime. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin believes, “Japan will hold its Senate election on the 20th, and there are many domestic constraints in terms of reaching an agreement.” This means that Shigeru Ishiba’s every choice takes into account both domestic public opinion and election strategies.
Tensions between allies have broken down, making it difficult to mend old wounds.
After the Trump administration took action against its American allies, it has sparked strong unease among Japanese citizens.
According to a national public opinion survey released by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun in late June, trust in the United States among Japanese citizens has dropped to 22%, marking a significant decline of 12 percentage points from November last year and setting a record low since 2000. The proportion of respondents who “distrust the United States” has risen by 13 percentage points to 68%. A survey conducted by Asahi Shimbun in April showed that 68% of respondents believe Japan should maintain its independence in foreign affairs and not overly follow the United States.
The ongoing pressure from the Trump administration has deepened the cracks in US-Japan relations. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had planned to visit Japan and South Korea in early July, but canceled the trip due to reasons such as the situation in the Middle East.
Several Japanese media have criticized the United States for being “strong on one side and weak on the other,” “betraying trust,” and “breaking faith.” According to a report by Nikkei Asian Review, Trump’s tariff policies have shattered Japan’s expectations for a special relationship between Japan and the United States. Japanese former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama believes that Japan cannot blindly follow the United States, nor can it persuade the United States to abandon harming other countries or to “break off” or “decouple” from the United States. The only correct choice is to enhance its independence and reduce its reliance on the United States.
“Talking to each other is impossible, and we cannot afford to make concessions,” has become an untenable dilemma facing the Shinzo Abe administration. Perhaps only a tough stance towards the Trump administration could win more bargaining chips in future negotiations. It is certain that the alliance between the United States and Japan is no longer viable for repair.