Recently, President Trump’s stance towards Russia has been becoming increasingly firm. From publicly expressing dissatisfaction with Russian President Putin to threatening to make a “major statement” about Russia; from reinstating military aid to Ukraine to increasing the pressure on the battlefield, and considering more stringent economic sanctions against Russia.
Facing Trump’s inconsistent attitude, Russia seems quite composed. The Press Secretary for the Russian President, Peskov, stated that Russia is waiting for Trump’s “major statement” to understand what he truly intends to convey.
Analysts believe that the so-called “major statement” marks a significant change in the way the United States handles the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming period, Trump will adopt a “maximum pressure” negotiation strategy towards Russia, aiming to compel talks through pressure rather than genuinely abandoning its containment policy.
Trump Seeks “Hardline for Peace”
Trump frequently expresses dissatisfaction towards Putin. After a phone call with Putin earlier this month discussing the issue of Ukraine, Trump complained about not making any progress during the call, feeling “unhappy.” A few days later, Trump openly expressed his “great dissatisfaction” towards Putin, stating that Putin’s attitude has always been “very good,” but the results are “meaningless.” On September 9th, Peskov responded that Trump’s remarks indicate that he has realized the difficulty of resolving the Ukraine issue is much greater than initially anticipated.
In response to Trump’s supposed “major statement” on the 14th regarding Russia, Peskov said Russia is “waiting” and “has carefully recorded all the subtle differences in the President’s statements.”
Public opinion suggests that Russia has grown accustomed to Trump’s inconsistent style. In responding to questions about Trump’s attitude shift, Peskov mentioned that Russia is “very calm,” “after all, Trump’s speaking style has always been quite tough.” Bukharin, a member of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, commented that there’s no need to take Trump’s threats seriously, “he can change his face five times in one day.”
Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Research Center on Central and Eastern Russia, Executive Director and Associate Researcher Sun Qi, told our newspaper that Trump’s change in attitude shows his attempt to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomatic means has not achieved the expected results. “He gradually realized that although Putin’s attitude is good, he is difficult to compromise on substantive issues. Perhaps only through strong pressure can he be forced back to the negotiation table.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Defense had announced a pause in the delivery of some arms aid to Ukraine. However, the U.S. has now resumed the transportation of some weapons to Ukraine. It is reported that Trump will use the “Presidential Discretionary Authority” (PDA) for the first time during his second term, extracting weapons and ammunition worth $300 million from the existing U.S. military stockpile to assist Ukraine, including Patriot missiles and attack medium-range rockets. Additionally, Trump stated that the U.S. Senate would pass a “very significant and powerful” sanctions bill against Russia, but whether it will be implemented ultimately depends on him.
Sun Qi believes that Trump will adopt a dual strategy in the future, achieving “hardness for peace” through military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, which is his consistent negotiation style.
Russia Seeks Military “Critical Point”
Recently, there has been an increasing trend in Russian offensives. On June 29, Igor, the head of the communication department at the Ukrainian Air Force Command, stated that Russia launched the “largest airstrike since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” targeting all of Ukraine. Subsequently, Ukraine claimed multiple airstrikes in various locations.
In Sun Qi’s view, both sides in Russia and Ukraine are attempting to enhance their negotiation position by changing the battlefield situation. The current offensive by Russia aims to create favorable conditions for negotiations. The Russian side hopes to start negotiations with an advantageous position, demanding that Ukraine accept its loss of territory.
Additionally, Russia believes that once the military situation reaches a “critical point,” Kyiv and the West will be compelled to accept Russia’s core demands and strategic objectives—Ukraine no longer becoming a geopolitical threat to Russia.
For Ukraine, securing more Western support to stabilize its front is particularly important at this time. Sun Qi emphasized that this batch of military aid focuses on the interception capabilities of air defense systems, among which the “Patriot” system can effectively intercept Russian precision-guided weapons, potentially helping Ukraine protect critical infrastructure. On April 4th, Trump agreed to deliver 10 Patriot anti-missile interceptor missiles to Ukraine and considered Ukraine’s request for another set of Patriot systems.
Experts believe that from the current situation, the Russian military has made limited progress but has not achieved the collapse of Ukrainian lines. Trump seems to be constructing a strategy for a “managed end to war,” neither allowing Ukraine to completely collapse nor expecting it to achieve military victory. This strategy aims to create an “acceptable exit” opportunity for both sides.
“New Ideas” and “Map Outline”
On April 10th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Pompeo held talks in Malaysia. From their post-talk statements, the US side expressed disappointment with Russia for not demonstrating more flexibility, claiming to see a “map outlining the road to ending the conflict with Russia.” However, they also showed interest in the “new ideas” proposed by Russia for peace. Pompeo stated that the “new ideas” proposed by Russia are not “new methods” but “new concepts,” which “will not automatically bring peace, but may open a door to a path.”
In Sun Qi’s view, the “roadmap” expected by the US at least includes four points: firstly, Russia should have a specific timetable and phased objectives rather than vague peace statements; secondly, the US demands that Russia present a concrete plan for resolving territorial disputes; thirdly, the US seeks to provide Ukraine with some form of security assurance; fourthly, the US requires Russia to propose an operational ceasefire plan and a military withdrawal schedule.
At the same time, he believes that the “new ideas” proposed by Russia also include at least four points. Firstly, a new model regarding Ukraine’s neutrality status: Russia insists on Ukraine’s “neutrality,” but may allow it to maintain some degree of security cooperation with the West without joining NATO. Secondly, a new plan for gradual lifting of sanctions: Russia hopes for a Western sanctions lifting scheme that is synchronized with the peace process as a condition of exchange. Thirdly, a new mechanism for security assurance: Russia expects to establish some kind of international guarantee mechanism, but excludes the establishment of foreign military bases or military exercises on Ukrainian territory. Fourthly, a new framework for negotiation: Russia believes that introducing more international participants in negotiations against Ukraine should replace previous bilateral negotiations or the “Minsk Framework” that has become obsolete.
However, whether the Russian “new ideas” can fit into the US “roadmap” will depend on future collisions between the two sides. Currently, the third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine has not yet commenced. Sun Qi stated that in the short term, local ceasefires and local conflicts will coexist, with the negotiation process progressing slowly but occasionally being disrupted by battlefields. This state of affairs may persist until a “critical point” emerges, and whether Trump’s strategy of “pressuring for talks” will prompt Russia to make more substantive concessions in the coming weeks will become clearer in the coming weeks.