Recently, the attitude of U.S. President Donald Trump towards Russia has been becoming increasingly firm. From publicly expressing dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin to threatening to make a “major statement” about Russia; from reinstating military aid to Ukraine to increase the pressure on the battlefield, to considering more stringent economic sanctions against Russia.
Faced with Trump’s inconsistent behavior, Russia seems quite composed. The Press Secretary for the Russian President, Peskov, stated that Russia is waiting for Trump’s “major statement” to understand what he actually wants to convey.
Analysts believe that the so-called “major statement” marks a significant change in the way the United States handles the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming period, Trump will adopt a “maximum pressure” negotiation strategy towards Russia, using pressure to encourage talks, but will not truly abandon its efforts to contain Russia.
Trump Seeks a “Hardline to Peace”
Trump frequently expresses dissatisfaction towards Putin. After a phone call with Putin earlier this month discussing the issue of Ukraine, Trump complained about not making any progress during the call, feeling “unhappy.” A few days later, Trump openly expressed his “dissatisfaction” with Putin, stating that Putin’s “attitude has always been very good,” yet the outcome “means nothing.” On September 9th, Peskov responded that Trump’s remarks indicate that he has realized that resolving the issue of Ukraine is “much harder than he initially anticipated.”
In response to Trump’s supposed “major statement” on the 14th regarding Russia, Peskov said Russia is “waiting” and “has carefully recorded all the subtle differences in the President’s statements.”
Public opinion believes that Russia has grown accustomed to Trump’s inconsistent style. In responding to questions about Trump’s attitude shift, Peskov said Russia is “very calm,” “after all, Trump’s speaking style has always been quite tough.” Anatoliy Bukina, a member of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, commented that there’s no need to take Trump’s threats seriously, “he can change his face five times in one day.”
Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Research Center on Central Asia and Russia, Executive Director and Associate Researcher Sun Qi, told our newspaper that Trump’s changing stance indicates his attempts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomatic means have not achieved the expected results. “He gradually realized that although Putin’s attitude is good, he cannot compromise on substantive issues; perhaps only through strong pressure can he be forced back to the negotiation table.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Defense had announced a pause in the delivery of some military aid to Ukraine. However, the U.S. has now resumed the transportation of certain weapons to Ukraine. There are reports that Trump will use the “Presidential Discretionary Authority” (PDA) for the first time during his second term, extracting $300 million worth of weaponry and ammunition from the existing U.S. military stockpile to assist Ukraine, including Patriot missiles and attack medium-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, Trump stated that the U.S. Senate would pass a “very significant and powerful” sanctions bill against Russia, but whether it will be implemented ultimately depends on him.
Sun Qi believes that Trump will adopt a dual strategy in the future, achieving “hardness for peace” by providing military aid to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia, which is his consistent negotiation style.
Russia Seeks Military “Critical Point”
Recently, there has been an increasing trend in Russian offensive efforts. On June 29th, Igor, the head of the communication department at the Ukrainian Air Force Command, stated that Russia had launched the “largest airstrike since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” targeting all of Ukraine. Subsequently, Ukraine claimed multiple airstrikes in various locations.
In Sun Qi’s view, both sides in Russia and Ukraine are attempting to enhance their negotiation position by altering the battlefield situation. The current offensive by Russia aims to create favorable conditions for negotiations. Russia hopes to start negotiations with a “advantageous position,” demanding that Ukraine accept its loss of territory.
Additionally, Russia believes that once the military situation reaches a “critical point,” Kyiv and the West will be compelled to accept Russia’s core demands and strategic objectives—Ukraine no longer becoming a geopolitical threat to Russia.
For Ukraine, securing more Western support to stabilize its front is particularly important at present. Sun Qi emphasized that this batch of military aid focuses on the interception capabilities of air defense systems, among which the “Patriot” system can effectively intercept Russian precision-guided weapons, potentially helping Ukraine protect critical infrastructure. On the 4th, Trump agreed to deliver 10 Patriot anti-missile interceptor missiles to Ukraine and considered Ukraine’s request for another set of Patriot systems.
Experts believe that from the current situation, the Russian military has made limited progress but has not achieved the collapse of Ukrainian lines. Trump seems to be constructing a strategy for a “managed end to war,” neither allowing Ukraine to completely collapse nor expecting it to achieve military victory. This strategy aims to create an “acceptable exit” opportunity for both sides.
“New Ideas” and “Map Outline”
On the 10th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Pompeo held talks in Malaysia. From their post-talk statements, the US side expressed disappointment with Russia’s lack of flexibility, claiming to see a “map outlining the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” while also showing interest in the “new ideas” proposed by Russia for peace. Pompeo stated that the “new ideas” proposed by Russia are not “new methods” but “new concepts,” which may not “automatically bring peace, but could open doors to a path.”
In Sun Qi’s view, the “roadmap” expected by the US at least includes four points: firstly, Russia should have a specific timetable and phased goals rather than vague peace statements; secondly, the US demands that Russia present a concrete plan for resolving territorial disputes; thirdly, the US seeks to provide Ukraine with some form of security assurance; fourthly, the US requires Russia to propose an operational ceasefire plan and a military withdrawal schedule.
At the same time, he believes that Russia’s proposed “new ideas” also include at least four points. Firstly, a new model for Ukraine’s neutrality status: Russia insists on Ukraine’s “neutrality,” but may allow it to maintain some degree of security cooperation with the West without joining NATO. Secondly, a new plan for gradual lifting of sanctions: Russia hopes for a Western sanctions lifting plan that is synchronized with the peace process as a condition for exchange. Thirdly, a new mechanism for security assurance: Russia expects to establish some kind of international guarantee mechanism, but excludes the establishment of foreign military bases or military exercises on Ukrainian territory. Fourthly, a new framework for negotiations: Russia believes that introducing more international participants in the Ukrainian negotiations will replace previous bilateral negotiations or the “Minsk Framework” that has become obsolete.
However, whether Russia’s “new ideas” can fit into the US’s “roadmap” will depend on future collisions between the two sides. Currently, the third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine has not yet commenced. Sun Qi stated that in the short term, local ceasefires and local conflicts will coexist, with the negotiation process progressing slowly but occasionally being disrupted by battlefields. This state of affairs may persist until a “critical point” emerges, and whether Trump’s strategy of “pressuring for talks” will prompt Russia to make more substantive concessions in the coming weeks will become clearer in the next few weeks.