The 27th National Assembly election in Japan is set to take place on the 20th. Polls show that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, which has been in power, faces a tough challenge as it aims to secure more than half of the seats.
Yasuhide Kato, a distinguished professor at Hokkaido University in Japan, mentioned that this election could potentially be a critical turning point for the future political landscape of Japan.
Yasuhide Kato, a distinguished professor at Hokkaido University in Japan:
Currently, including the media, there is high anticipation for this Senate election. The turnout rate is undoubtedly higher than in previous elections or even the last one. Voters who have not visited the polling stations in the past—referred to as the “floating layer”—who are mostly negative or even hostile towards the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party, are expected to significantly increase their votes this time. This could lead to a significant increase in votes for some reformist parties, as well as independent candidates and opposition parties.
Japanese experts believe that if the ruling coalition fails again, its situation will become even more difficult.
Kato stated that since the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party lost the majority in the House of Representatives election last year, failing again in this Senate election would make the situation even more challenging for the coalition.
Yasuhide Kato, a distinguished professor at Hokkaido University in Japan:
I think the ruling party will lose more than half of the seats, so from this perspective, the overall result will likely follow most predictions. This means that besides losing the House of Representatives, the ruling Liberal Democratic and Komeito parties might also lose important political forces, and even their current position of power. In such a case, the political situation in Japan might further deteriorate.
Japanese expert: The failure of the ruling party’s measures to address rising prices leads to public dissatisfaction.
Kato believes that despite Masaaki Inoue’s promise to improve people’s lives as his flagship policy, his efforts have been largely ineffective in addressing the issue of rising prices, which is the main reason behind the low popularity of the ruling coalition.
Yasuhide Kato, a distinguished professor at Hokkaido University in Japan:
Currently, Japan is facing an issue of rising prices, leading to a significant increase in the number of people living in hardship, such as shortages of rice and stagnant wage levels. These issues are major problems in daily life. Looking back at these root causes, many voters believe that the responsibility lies with the long-serving Liberal Democratic Party and the ruling coalition. Although these voters supported the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party in the past, they now want to try other parties. As a result, support for both parties is declining.