In June 2025, Israel successfully launched a surprise attack on Iran. The Israeli government led by Netanyahu faced numerous criticisms for its “victory” in various fronts, despite the fact that these efforts did not alleviate public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s intention to continue his power was evident in his deliberate delay of the war. Starting from mid-July, two right-wing religious minor parties within the current coalition have chosen to withdraw from the government. Public discontent with Netanyahu is centered around several issues: firstly, the slow progress in hostage rescue has sparked intense anger. Since Hamas’s attack on Israel in 2023 and the kidnapping of many civilians, over 21 months have passed, yet more than 30 hostages remain unreleased.
The handling of the hostage issue by the Netanyahu government has been criticized for its low efficiency and potential ulterior motives. A public opinion survey conducted in May this year revealed that most Israelis believe Netanyahu is more concerned about consolidating his power than actively rescuing his abducted compatriots. Some family members of hostages have repeatedly protested outside, accusing the government of prolonging the war for the sake of hostage safety. The prolonged conflict has resulted in significant sacrifices and pressure on both Israeli military and civilians. To date, the Gaza conflict has claimed over 50,000 Palestinian lives, leaving them homeless; Israel has also seen approximately 450 soldiers killed, setting a record high for military casualties in decades. The prolonged multi-front battle has placed a heavy burden on the Israeli economy, leading to a surge in military spending, a decline in investment and exports, and rising domestic inflation and fiscal deficit pressures. The Israeli economy achieved only a 1% growth in 2024, significantly below pre-war expectations.
The ongoing two-year war has raised questions about its long-term security implications, versus whether it is merely draining the nation’s strength and exacerbating security risks. This issue has sparked differing opinions within Israel’s elite security circles: some reserve officers have refused to continue their service, while prominent figures such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert have openly condemned Netanyahu for his involvement in the Gaza conflict. On the other hand, the Israeli government has been under pressure to swiftly end its military operations in Gaza, a situation that has led to a general consensus demanding an immediate end to these actions. Overall, despite Netanyahu’s government’s attempts to showcase its military prowess abroad, trust in its leadership and motives has significantly diminished among the public. The war has not made Israelis feel safer but has instead led many elites and citizens to believe that the current government is steering the country into perilous waters.
In mid-July, two religious political parties within the ruling coalition announced their withdrawal from the government, plunging Netanyahu’s administration into a precarious governance crisis.
On the night of July 14th, the ultra-orthodox Jewish party “Bible Jewish Alliance” (BJA) with seven seats declared its withdrawal from the coalition government, citing Netanyahu’s failure to fulfill promises and his refusal to legislate to ensure the exemption of its constituents—those who adhere to the core teachings of Judaism—from military service.
Two days later, another major ultra-orthodox party, the Shas Party, holding eleven seats, convened an internal meeting and decided to withdraw from the coalition. The Shas Party claimed that the current government had “caused serious and unacceptable damage” to the status of the Torah in Judaism, rendering it unfit to remain in power. However, it was noted that while the Shas Party announced this decision, it also stated that it would not push for an early parliamentary election. In other words, the Shas Party opted to have its ministers resign to put pressure on the government, yet it still temporarily supported the Netanyahu coalition in the parliament, waiting to see if the government could meet its demands.
Netanyahu’s majority in the government is now in jeopardy.
The Israeli parliament consists of 120 seats, with the ruling coalition holding a majority of 68 seats when these two parties joined.
After 7 seats were withdrawn, the coalition now has only 61 seats left, barely maintaining an over-half advantage. If the Shas party’s 11 seats completely align with the opposition, the Netanyahu government would have only about 50 seats in the parliament, immediately falling below the threshold of half support. According to Israeli law, losing the parliamentary majority means being unable to pass budgets and bills effectively, posing a risk of collapse at any moment.
Currently, the Shas party has not immediately turned against the opposition, giving Netanyahu a breather, but the ruling coalition is essentially divided. The catalyst for the secular parties to turn against their leaders—the “Conscription Exemption Act” issue—has been longstanding.
Over-orthodox Jews have long been exempt from mandatory conscription in Israel, but this privilege was declared unconstitutional and required the government to legislate its end. Netanyahu promised during his cabinet formation in 2022 to cooperate with ultra-orthodox allies to continue exempting them from military service through new legislation. However, the relevant bill, which involved social equity, has been controversial and has not met the demands of extreme orthodox groups.
During this period, a large number of active reserve soldiers fought on the front lines, while students from religious schools continued to serve in the military, sparking public discontent and further intensifying religious-secular conflicts. It can be said that the “Conscription Exemption” issue is becoming the final straw that could break the ruling coalition. Now, Netanyahu needs to find ways to soothe religious allies and push for legislation to meet their demands, while also addressing the demands of the majority of secular citizens for fair national defense obligations, which seems difficult to balance. This split within the ruling coalition has added to the already strained situation of the Netanyahu government due to war.
As the seat advantage of the ruling coalition disappears, the biggest suspense regarding the fate of the Netanyahu government lies in whether Israel will hold early elections or if Netanyahu can retain power.
According to the normal cycle, Israel’s next legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026. However, if the government loses its majority in Parliament and cannot pass a budget or face a vote of no confidence, it might be forced to hold an early election.
Generally speaking, after the collapse of the ruling coalition, the President will seek opinions from various parties to see if other members of Parliament can form a new coalition government. If that fails, under the current circumstances, Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest party in Parliament, but its foundation for forming a government has been shaken. Once the Shas party completely switches sides, theoretically, the opposition camp could attempt to form an alternative government or dissolve Parliament through legislation. Israeli President Herzog and O’Hanlan do not have the authority to unilaterally declare elections, but they will assess the political landscape behind the scenes, urging all parties to come up with solutions.
If a political deadlock cannot be broken, re-election for Netanyahu is fraught with danger. Currently, several polls show that if elections are held now, he would struggle to form a majority coalition again. Israeli voters’ dissatisfaction with the current government may be reflected in the ballot, making seats for Likud and its far-right allies difficult to secure.
In contrast, the opposition has several heavyweight figures poised to challenge. Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the most vocal challengers currently. This former Chief of Staff and Defense Minister formed an emergency coalition government with Netanyahu during the early stages of the war, seen as a candidate for consensus-building. In April this year, Netanyahu publicly called for an early election on the one-year anniversary of the war, stating it was necessary to restore public trust. What worries Netanyahu more is that multiple polls show that the support rate for the centrist “National Union” led by Netanyahu has risen to the top, suggesting that Netanyahu could defeat him in the next election and become Prime Minister.
Another main challenger is Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist “Future Party” and former Prime Minister.
Lapid briefly served as Prime Minister in 2022, leading a coalition against Netanyahu and possessing a certain appeal for uniting the secular middle class and moderate conservative voters. If an early election were to occur, he is likely to collaborate with Gantz or lead the opposition separately in a bid to end Netanyahu’s 15-year reign. From the current political landscape, if the opposition unites, including centrist parties and leftist, Arab party groups, they have the opportunity to secure more than half of the seats. This means that Netanyahu is likely facing the most severe downfall crisis since his re-election in 2009.
Of course, the shrewd Netanyahu does not lack countermeasures. He has explicitly stated his opposition to holding elections during wartime, claiming that such actions would only “reward Hamas,” causing chaos within the country. In the coming months, he may attempt several strategies to navigate through the crisis: either try to persuade Shas party, for example, to expedite the implementation of a conscription exemption bill or offer other policy concessions to stabilize religious allies; or seek to recruit some moderate opposition figures into government positions to replace the positions of extremist allies, without ruling out the formal inclusion of Gantz’s party in a broader coalition government.
However, under the backdrop of war and a highly polarized political atmosphere, these options face challenges: The Netanyahu government is on the verge of a cliff: The longer the war continues, the higher the demands for accountability and change from both domestic and international sources, and the greater the centrifugal forces within the governing coalition.