In the Japanese Dietary Election, what is the fate of the current cabinet?
On the 20th local time, the 27th Dietary Election in Japan began with vote counting, marking the end of a 17-day campaign. According to Kyodo News on the 20th, this election primarily addresses issues such as rising prices and US tariff policies.
Academics interviewed by Global Times on the 20th stated that the results of this Dietary Election would more directly reflect public opinion about the policies undertaken by the Shirakawa administration since its inception. If the ruling coalition loses too many seats, it will not only further reduce the control capabilities of both major parties over the National Diet but also directly impact the foundation of Shirakawa’s regime.
Can the ruling coalition secure more than half of the seats?
The 27th Dietary Election in Japan started voting at 7 AM local time on the 20th, and concluded at 8 PM (19 PM Beijing Time) on the same day. The counting phase is now underway, with predictions suggesting that the general results could be known late into the night. The Dietary Council in Japan has 248 seats, with members serving for six years and being reelected every three years. This time, there were 522 candidates vying for 125 seats, including 124 seats that are due for reelection and one additional seat for a by-election.
Whether the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party can secure more than half of the seats has become a focal point of public concern. Kyodo News reported on the 20th that the two parties have set their target as “achieving a majority of the seats, including non-reelection ones.” Together, they hold 75 seats in non-reelection positions, meaning they need to secure at least 50 seats to maintain the “winning line” of having more than half of the Dietary Council seats.
The report mentioned that last October, the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party suffered a significant defeat in the House of Representatives elections, becoming the minority party. If they also lose more than half of their seats in this Dietary Election, Prime Minister Shirakawa’s governance will become even more challenging.
According to Japanese media reports, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Yoshihide Suga, stated that they aim to force the ruling party into a situation where it loses more than half of its seats. To achieve this goal, the opposition party needs 77 seats.
Some parties may also gain the power to propose separate bills in the Senate. In the Senate, proposals not involving budgetary issues require 11 seats, while those involving budgetary issues need 21 seats. This means that if the国民民主党 can achieve their goal of 16 seats, plus non-re-elected 5 seats, they will total 21 seats, which could expand their capacity to propose bills requiring budgetary approval. If the opposition party gains 10 seats, plus non-re-elected 1 seat, they will reach 11 seats, gaining the power to propose bills independently.
Lu Hao, Director of the Comprehensive Strategic Research Office at the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Global Times in an interview on the 20th that in Japan, the elections for both houses of parliament are national elections, representing the voters’ election of members of the National Diet and reflecting the voters’ views towards various forces in both the ruling and opposition camps. In this election, the voting behavior of the Japanese voters is largely based on their evaluation of the effectiveness of the current government, not just targeting individual members but more towards their respective parties behind them. The public’s dissatisfaction with current economic and social issues such as rising prices and government policies will be transformed into specific political choices through voting, ultimately reflected in the election results.
Lu Hao mentioned that during last year’s House of Representatives election, shortly after Yoshihide Suga took office, the defeat was mostly attributed to legacy issues left by the previous government, and the public did not excessively criticize the new government. A year later, the results of this Senate election will more directly reflect the external evaluation of Suga’s government’s policies since taking office. If the governing coalition loses too many seats, it will not only further reduce the control capability of the alliance over the National Diet but also directly impact the foundation of Suga’s government.
On the 20th, Japan’s Kyodo News reported that the election results are a reflection of the public’s assessment of the Shirakawa cabinet. Since the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party became minority parties in last autumn’s House of Representatives elections, the Senate election results could potentially impact the government. On the same day, Nikkei reported that the Shirakawa administration faces a test of trust, but the situation remains unclear, with the possibility of a coalition reorganization or even a change in government.
According to predictions by Yomiuri Shimbun before the election, the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to secure around 30 seats, despite the gap between its seats and those of the Komeito Party still being significant, making it “serious” for the ruling coalition to maintain a majority. The Constitutional Democratic Party has shown steady performance, showing an upward trend compared to the early stages of the election, and is expected to secure 30 seats. The国民民主党 continues to gain momentum, with an anticipated significant increase in seats, aiming for a “change of more than 16 seats.” The opposition party is expected to secure over 10 seats, achieving a significant leap forward.
A recent poll by Japan’s Kyodo News revealed that Shirakawa Abe’s approval rating has dropped by 6.2 percentage points from last month, reaching only 20.8%, marking the lowest record since the cabinet was established in October last year. In Japanese politics, a cabinet’s approval rating below 30% is considered a “dangerous situation”; if it falls below 20%, it is seen as entering “the danger zone.”
Lian Degui, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, told Global Times on the 20th that currently, it seems that the opposition parties cannot unite to “counter” the Liberal Democratic Party. Therefore, even if the ruling coalition cannot secure a majority, there is little likelihood of a power shift, and the current “minority government” might continue. However, it may continue to explore ways to expand the governing coalition, such as cooperation with the National Democratic Party or policy collaboration, and there is also no rule against cooperation with the Constitutional Democratic Party.
He stated that in the face of the current situation, changing Ishihara Kazuto could not solve Japan’s current problems, so it might not be willing to “get into the mud.”
Luo Hao also expressed a similar view. He believes that although the election results will not directly lead to a change in the Prime Minister, if the ruling coalition loses too many seats, it will put tremendous pressure on the existing government. Although it is currently difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to nominate a successor with widespread support, Ishihara’s political prestige will face greater challenges due to the election’s unfavorable outcome, as the party leader’s most important task is to lead the entire party to victory in the national elections. Luo Hao mentioned that the opposition forces within the party would be more active in preparing for the next power grab. This Senate election will have an important subsequent impact on the political dynamics within the Liberal Democratic Party and the entire political landscape.
Observing this election campaign, one can see that various parties are engaging in fierce debates on how to respond to rising prices, foreign policy, and trade negotiations with the United States among other issues. Notably, during the campaign period, the populist conservative party, the Kenseikai, which advocates for “Japanese priority,” was strong. The party has a strong anti-foreign stance and has gained some voter support and public attention.
According to a report by Asahi Shimbun, the Kenseikai was established in April 2020. Its initial members included five people including the current party leader, Shinzo Abe. In the 2022 Senate election, the Kenseikai secured one seat, entering parliament for the first time and gaining three seats in last year’s House of Representatives election. The report also mentioned that the party is expected to make significant progress, securing over ten seats in the Senate election. Analysts believe this indicates that Japanese politics may further become more conservative and right-wing.
In response, Lian Degui analyzed for Global Times that the dissatisfaction of the Liberal Democratic Party’s supporters with the current government mainly stems from conservative voters disliking the Liberal Democratic Party. This group of voters might cast their votes for the Kenseikai, leading to the Liberal Democratic Party losing its majority.
However, the participation of minor parties and the conservative electorate are also minority groups, and the trend towards populist conservatism does not represent the general sentiment of Japan’s society at present.
Lu Hao mentioned that this surge in populist conservatism is not a short-term phenomenon but a product of the deepening conservativeization in Japanese society. During the post-war period of rapid economic growth, Japan was full of confidence and advocated for an open attitude towards the international community. However, the current development of social conservativeization and domestic economic issues can easily be exploited by populist forces and conservative forces to portray foreigners as “problem sources” affecting public safety and encroaching on welfare, thereby intensifying anti-immigrant sentiments. Despite the urgent need for foreign immigration to address labor shortages, under the constraints of conservative opinions and political forces, the government has had to adopt a cautious stance on immigration policies, emphasizing “protection of national interests.” This political influence on decision-making is becoming increasingly significant.
“Essentially, the overall conservativeization and the increase in extreme political emotions reflect the profound changes in Japan’s economy and social structure after World War II. Over the past twenty or thirty years, the prolonged low growth and deflation following the bursting of the bubble economy have shaken the stable high-welfare society centered around the middle class, gradually replacing the previously relatively moderate and open public opinion with more radical, even aggressive, public sentiments,” Lu Hao stated. Economic changes have given rise to a nationalist sentiment colored by melancholy, with elites using various rhetoric to stimulate the public’s sense of crisis and thereby pushing the country towards what they call “normalization” or “political military domination.” This emotional transmission eventually translates into adjustments in national strategy direction, gaining support from the public. This deep-seated transformation will continue to affect its political ecology and development trajectory.
Lu Hao told Global Times that the election results will not fundamentally change Japan’s overall foreign policy direction.
Japan’s current push for a strategic transformation and its pursuit of an elevated international status have become a consensus among all parties, unaffected by the election results.
He further analyzed that Japan is currently under pressure from the United States’ Trump administration regarding alliance policies, particularly in terms of tariff issues and the obligation to fulfill alliance duties. The United States has placed more demands on Japan. How Japan responds to this pressure, while safeguarding its national interests and maintaining alliance relations, is a challenging choice. This test will not change with the election results.
Lu Hao stated that, of course, there are many controversies surrounding major foreign policy issues such as those concerning the United States and China. If a government change or leadership transition occurs, the new leaders may make tactical adjustments in their foreign policy to reflect their understanding of major-country relations.