According to news from July 21st, preliminary results of the Senate election in Japan’s Diet show that the ruling coalition consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party failed to secure more than half of the seats in the Senate. This marks the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party was established in 1955 that it has not secured a majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors.
What will be the fate of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s government?
The Kume Masamoto faction within the Liberal Democratic Party is “pressuring” Prime Minister Suga to step down.
Faced with this historic defeat in the Senate election, calls for Prime Minister Suga’s resignation within the Liberal Democratic Party have been rising.
It has been learned that members of the Kume faction, led by the highest advisor and former Prime Minister Taro Aso, have urgently convened to assess the situation.
Aso has clearly stated to those around him, “I will not allow Suga to continue to govern,” showing a clear “pressure” towards his resignation.
Members of the Liberal Democratic Party revealed that forces supporting and opposing Suga’s continued governance are fighting each other.
On the evening of the 20th, during a Tokyo TV program, the Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Yasushi Mori, expressed, “While the counting work is still ongoing, it is not appropriate to discuss issues of responsibility at this stage,” without explicitly mentioning his own future. In response to the opposition party’s proposal for a consumption tax cut, he emphasized, “Consumption tax is an important source of social security,” once again indicating a cautious stance.
Mori further stated, “Considering the international situation, U.S. tariff measures, and the corresponding economic conditions, it can be clearly stated that there should never be a political vacuum period at present.”
Analysts point out that it is not ruled out that the Japanese Prime Minister could change. Since the ruling coalition lost its majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, it would lead to every bill submitted by the government being forced to yield to the opposition. In such a scenario, Prime Minister Suga might resign under pressure, leading to another playbook for the Liberal Democratic Party to select a new President.
△ Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Answers Questions at the Liberal Democratic Party Headquarters on July 20
During a special Senate election program broadcasted by NHK on the evening of the 20th, Suga stated: “It is essential to clearly recognize the responsibilities we bear towards our country and the mission of being the largest party in the Diet. I will continue to fulfill my duties.”
Several Japanese media interpretations suggest that this indicates Suga’s intention to continue serving as Prime Minister.
“Three-Party Government” or “Independent Alliance?”
According to an analysis by The Japan Times, if the ruling coalition falls short of a majority in the Senate but Suga continues to serve as Prime Minister,
Suga might choose to incorporate another party into the ruling coalition
to maintain a majority in the Senate through a “three-party government alliance.”
Another analysis points out that after losing their majority in the Diet,
the opposition parties might form an alliance to replace the ruling coalition. However, it seems that there are still significant differences among the opposition parties, making the likelihood of a “united opposition coalition” seem slim.
A new trend worth noting in this Senate election is the strong momentum of the populist conservative party, the Kenseikai, during the campaign period. The party advocates for “Japanese priority,” with a strong anti-foreign sentiment, gathering popularity among conservatives and some young people.
The Kenseikai secured one seat in the 2022 Senate elections, entering the Diet for the first time and gaining three seats in the House of Representatives last year. The Asahi Shimbun previously predicted that if the party becomes a “key minority” in Japanese politics through this election, Japanese politics may further become more conservative and right-wing.
Voters: More inclined to see an independent party take over
As of the evening of the 20th, according to a survey conducted by Kyodo News on the day of the Senate election regarding voters’ expectations for post-election political formations,
“an independent party-led change of power” was ranked as the most preferred option, with 24%.
The 3% support rate leads the way, while “the continuation of the coalition led by the Public Administration” only received 18.4% support, with 9.6% opting for “the absorption of the National Democratic Party into the Public Administration coalition.”
Japanese citizens have long been dissatisfied with the ruling coalition.
Since Taro Kono became Japan’s Prime Minister, his policy of improving people’s livelihood has been a flagship initiative. However, in the area of public concern—prices—his efforts have been largely ineffective. Data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on the 7th of this month shows that Japan’s real wages decreased for the fifth consecutive month in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years. Polls indicate that Kono’s cabinet’s approval rating has dropped to 20.8%, down 6.2 percentage points from last month, marking its lowest point since he took office; meanwhile, the unfavorable rating has risen to 55%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from last month.