After the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party suffered a “historic defeat” in the Senate, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga began his traditional political skill—a bowing apology. However, at the same time, he declared that he would “continue to govern.”
“Continue to govern?” This statement from Suga sparked a stir within the Liberal Democratic Party, with members expressing their “unacceptable” stance. Komeito member Yoshihiro Suzuki even accused Suga of not resigning as if he were disrespecting the voting public in Japan.
It is worth noting that the Liberal Democratic Party’s “tumble” extends far beyond this Senate election defeat. Since Suga took office as Prime Minister in October 2024, the party has experienced three consecutive losses in the House of Representatives, Tokyo Diet, and the Senate elections. The severe defeat in the Senate this time was the first since the establishment of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955, where it failed to secure more than half of the seats in both houses of Parliament.
It can be said that the N consecutive defeats of the Suga administration are highly embarrassing.
Under these circumstances, Suga’s statement about “continuing to govern” leaves significant uncertainty for the Japanese political landscape and its foreign relations. What resistance will Suga face when he takes office? Will there be a surge of pressure within the Liberal Democratic Party against him due to the “epic” defeat in the Senate elections? What will the future of Japan-US economic and trade negotiations look like? With these questions in mind, Zhixin News interviewed Wang Guangtao, Associate Professor at the Center for Japan Studies at Fudan University, to interpret these issues.
Suga refuses to resign, leading to a backlash from the Liberal Democratic Party
On the afternoon of July 21st, at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party, there was a “death question” directed at Suga: whether the leadership, including Suga himself, is “not prepared to take responsibility for the defeat and continue to stay in office”? In response, Suga stated, “I have no thoughts on personnel issues at the moment.”
Regarding the crushing defeat of the ruling coalition, Suga stated that to “avoid the government’s affairs from becoming paralyzed,” he would continue to govern.
Since the internal opposition to Shirakawa’s announcement of “continued tenure” within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has resurfaced, many voices demanding accountability have emerged within the party. On the 22nd, Senator Yamada Hiroki posted on social media, stating that Shirakawa should first take responsibility for the crushing defeat; the LDP’s Chichibu Prefecture branch federation decided to submit a request to the LDP headquarters for Shirakawa’s resignation.
In the afternoon of the 22nd, some young members planned to convene a meeting to discuss measures against Shirakawa’s regime. Meanwhile, within the party, there began a movement demanding an early presidential election by signing petitions.
A young member expressed, “If he doesn’t resign, then we can only act.” However, according to the LDP constitution, the dismissal of the president requires the support of more than half of the parliamentary members and prefectural representatives. Whether this can be achieved is key.
“From a logical standpoint, if we don’t reach the ‘winning line’ of over half of the Senate seats, someone should bear responsibility,” Wang Guotao told Zhixin News in an interview. For Japanese citizens, an ideal solution would be for Shirakawa to resign. However, his expressed desire to continue serving means he might face resistance from various quarters and that there will need to be someone held accountable within the party.
What are the obstacles faced by Shirakawa in insisting on continued governance? Wang Guotao continued, pointing out that on top of continuing governance, adjustments to some important positions within the party must be made, and the cabinet may also need to be reshuffled. Off the party, because the LDP has become a minority party in both houses of parliament, facing greater pressure in policy formulation, bill proposals, and coordination between factions or parties, especially in some critical areas.
If a coup d’état becomes successful, who might become the next president?
Wang Guotao stated that there has always been a call for a change in the president within the LDP, not just because of the recent Senate election failure.
“However, this time the defeat in the Senate election is actually a minor climax,” said Wang Guotao. “At least no one has explicitly stated their intention to choose from the Liberal Democratic Party’s president.” He continued, “The Liberal Democratic Party might also take advantage of the situation’s development to stage a coup against Ishiba at an appropriate time.” He mentioned that whether Ishiba Miyazaki would respond was another matter altogether, as he still had cards to play, such as his power to dissolve the House of Representatives.
Who will become the president of the Liberal Democratic Party if Ishiba Miyazaki steps down?
One potential candidate is Koizumi Junichiro, whose ancestors were members of the Diet for three terms and his father was former Prime Minister Koizumi Yukio. Wang Guotao pointed out,
A political figure who is younger, more dynamic, closer to public demands, or inclined towards populism.
Japan-US Tariff Battle: Japan Will Not Use US Bonds Carelessly
“Ishiba Miyazaki has not fulfilled his ambitions; he was a political leader with independent thinking in domestic, foreign, and security affairs,” Wang Guotao told Zhixin News. However, during Ishiba Miyazaki’s tenure, he was overwhelmed by the legacy issues within the Liberal Democratic Party, many policies were not put into practice.
Wang Guotao noted that the tariff battle between Japan and the United States may depend more on the American side, as Japan currently has few cards to play. The Japanese side recently claimed they held a large amount of US bonds, but they might dare to say it but not necessarily act upon it. This is because selling off US bonds could have a fundamental impact on Japan-US relations, especially given the current unbalanced alliance between the two countries. As the weaker party, it is unlikely for Japan to exercise this “US bond card.”
Currently, the major trouble facing Ishiba Miyazaki is a combination of internal and external difficulties.