[Report by Zhang Qian] According to a report by the UK’s The Guardian on the 28th, Darryl Caldwell, the nominee for the US Navy’s Chief of Naval Operations and Admiral, stated during his testimony before the US Congress on the 24th that unless the United States doubles its shipbuilding production speed, it will not be able to sell any “Virginia” class nuclear submarines to Australia under the AUKUS agreement. This is because the current US submarine production is too low to meet its own defense needs.
The Guardian reported that government data from the US shows that the number of US naval submarine fleets is about one-quarter below the target value, and the production speed of US ships is only slightly above half of the speed required for self-defense needs alone. According to estimates by the US Navy, the current production rate of the “Virginia” class nuclear submarines is about 1.13 per year, which is needed to meet the US’s own defense needs at 2 per year. On this basis, if submarines are to be sold to Australia, they would need to be produced approximately 2.33 per year.
During his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Caldwell candidly admitted that there is no magic bullet to improve the rigid US shipbuilding capabilities. Only efficiency improvements or marginal improvements are insufficient to “fulfill our actual agreements with Britain and Australia.” “This requires a transformative boost, not just a 10% increase, nor a 20% increase, but a 100% increase,” he said.
The report mentioned that Australia has already paid $1.6 billion (approximately $1.04 billion) to help the US boost its fragile shipbuilding industry. The US itself continues to invest in shipyards, but the results have been minimal.
The Guardian also noted that former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull stated that the reality of the US submarine shortage means there is “a very high possibility” that Australia will ultimately miss out on the “Virginia” class submarines.
As Australia’s “Collins” class submarines approach the end of their service life, and the UK’s nuclear submarines designed and built for Australia under the “Aukus” agreement face delays, Australia may not possess any submarine capabilities in the next 10 years or even 20 years.
“The risk of acquiring any ‘Virginia’ class submarines is objectively present and very high,” said Turnbull.
In June 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia announced the formation of a new security alliance named “Aukus,” signing an agreement whereby the US and UK would provide Australia with nuclear submarines. This agreement has been criticized from the outset for being contingent upon Australia breaking its normal submarine procurement agreement with France, as well as for its potential to exacerbate nuclear proliferation risks and intensify “campaigns of choice” within the regional security landscape, sparking widespread domestic and international skepticism.
On June 11 this year, Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon was considering scrapping the “Aukus” nuclear submarine agreement signed with Australia and the UK. The sudden shift in the US’s stance on “Aukus” immediately raised “anxiety and panic” among Australia and the UK. On June 12, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China had repeatedly expressed its stance on the establishment of what it calls a “Trilateral Security Partnership” between the US, the UK, and Australia, advancing cooperation on nuclear submarines and other cutting-edge military technologies. We consistently oppose creating “campaigns of choice,” opposing escalating nuclear proliferation risks, and opposing intensifying arms races.