The five-day ceasefire on the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia came to an end.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the afternoon of July 28th, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Prachatep and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen attended a special meeting at the Malaysian Prime Minister’s residence to discuss the situation along the Thai-Cambodian border. The meeting was chaired by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar. During a press conference, Anwar stated that both Thailand and Cambodia reached a consensus during their discussions that day, agreeing to “immediately and unconditionally” suspend hostilities starting from midnight local time on the 28th to end the border conflict between the two countries.
On July 28th, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar (center), Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (left), and Thai Deputy Prime Minister Prachatep were present at a special meeting discussing the situation along the Thai-Cambodian border in Malaysia.
A joint statement from the leaders of the three countries also mentioned that they would convene an informal regional commanders’ meeting at 7 AM local time on July 29th, followed by a joint committee meeting hosted by Cambodia on August 4th. Anwar emphasized that both sides agreed to resume cooperation mechanisms led by the prime ministers, foreign ministers, and defense ministers of the two countries. The foreign and defense ministers of Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand have been instructed to develop detailed mechanisms for implementing, monitoring, and reporting on the progress of the ceasefire. This mechanism will lay the foundation for lasting peace and accountability.
Previously, Thailand had initially strongly rejected third-party mediation but later changed its stance to “preferring direct dialogue between the two countries to resolve issues.” Now accepting the ceasefire, Bao Zhipeng, a scholar on Southeast Asian issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to The Paper that the border conflict triggered by the “phonegate” incident has so far “achieved its objectives in military and political terms, achieving conditions for a ceasefire. If the conflict continues, both sides will struggle to sustain it over the long term, lacking the strength to support a prolonged war. Malaysia’s offer of mediation at this time is very timely.”
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此外，美国总统特朗普26日在社交平台上说，他当天分别与洪玛奈和普坦通电话，称两国只有结束边境冲突，美国才会考虑与两国达成贸易协议。“我认为特朗普总统的干预确实在一定程度上加快了停火谈判的安排进度，因为关税将于8月1日生效。”泰国政治评论员、美国密歇根大学政治学系博士研究生肯·马西斯·洛哈特潘农特告诉澎湃新闻。
“其实，最关键的还是马来西亚总理安瓦尔的努力，不仅通电话，还提供谈判场地，邀请两国领导人到马来西亚进行直接谈判，为最终实现停火奠定基础。”上海国际问题研究院东南亚研究中心主任周士新则对澎湃新闻表示。
注定难以持久的政治账
在鲍志鹏看来，这场冲突的全面爆发是受泰国被停职总理佩通坦和洪玛奈之父洪森的电话录音外泄事件影响，“本质上是一场注定难以持久的政治账”。“当前的停火安排对双方而言其实都是理性选择。泰国国内不少人认为，长期冲突会损害国家的国际形象。我听到一个有趣的观点：在有限冲突中，越是实力占优的一方，在道义上反而更容易吃亏，容易被指责‘以大欺小’，这也是泰国愿意解决问题的动因之一。”他对澎湃新闻说。
就持续搅动局势的泰国国内政治格局而言，军方的目的已基本达成，无论在军事上展现出对柬埔寨方面的优势，还是在政治层面上扩大影响力、压制文官政府。
“The conflict has undoubtedly weakened the position of the Pheu Thai government, with the current administration criticized for poor national security management, especially considering that before the outbreak of the conflict, the Hninay and Khammongkol families were closely related as ‘family friends’.” Luo Hartpanont analyzed to The Paper. He also mentioned that the opposition People Power Party, which holds a significant number of seats in the parliament, has become more restrained in its stance.
“Before the formal outbreak of the conflict, the support rate for the Khammongkol family had been continuously declining due to the breakup of their alliance with the People Power Party (formerly known as the Forward Party), as well as poor economic performance. The phone leak incident also led to a significant drop in the poll ratings for the Pheu Thai party. Moreover, the Khammongkol family had long faced severe legal risks, particularly regarding whether he Sinh was indeed hospitalized during his sentence for serious illness. Now, they are being accused of not properly handling relations with Cambodia, which could further decrease the support rate for the Pheu Thai party. With his political assets diminishing, he Sinh’s popularity is likely to decline further. His loss of public support base means that he Sinh’s political clout is also decreasing, making it likely that other parties like the Patriotic Party, which is more pro-military and conservative, will replace him.” Luo Hartpanont analyzed.
He Sinh was sentenced to three years in prison for three cases, but was later pardoned by the king and reduced to one year. Since returning to Thailand on August 22, 2023, he was detained at Bangkok’s Special Prison only for 13 hours before being transferred to the VIP ward on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital, where he stayed for six months until he was granted parole in February 2024. After spending a brief period in the hospital, he was immediately admitted to the hospital, sparking public concerns about “privileged treatment” and the legality of his imprisonment. The court is currently investigating whether this period should be considered actual imprisonment.
Thai courts have scheduled hearings on July 4, 8, and 15 for medical personnel, prison staff, and high officials within the correctional system, respectively.
Additionally, the Thai Criminal Court is scheduled to deliver a verdict on August 22 at 10 AM regarding hisinvolvement in violation of Article 112 (offense against the royal family) of the Criminal Code and the Computer Crimes Act.
It should not be exaggerated that the role of mediation plays a significant role in the United States.
The deadlock over the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia was broken last weekend. On the 26th, Trump stated on social media platforms that the United States has trade relations with both Thailand and Cambodia. If the two countries are engaged in a conflict, the United States does not wish to reach any agreements with them. “When all the dust settles and peace is about to arrive, I look forward to reaching trade agreements with these two countries,” Trump added. He also mentioned that leaders from Thailand and Cambodia agreed to “immediate meetings and quickly reach a ceasefire agreement” and hoped to resume “trade negotiations.”
Following Trump’s statement, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by confirming that the Thai side generally agrees to a ceasefire and requested the US to convey this to Cambodia: The Thai side hopes to have a bilateral meeting as soon as possible to jointly determine clear measures and procedures for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Hong Mae Nai also stated on social media platforms that Cambodia agreed to the proposal for an immediate unconditional ceasefire between its armed forces, which he had already expressed during a phone call with Anwar on the 24th.
In mid-to-late June, Trump sent letters to more than 20 trading partners, including threats of tariffs of 36% against Thailand and Cambodia.
“Trump’s use of tariff threats seems effective, being both practical and reluctant. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia will inevitably divert diplomatic and strategic resources from both sides, making it impossible to focus on negotiating tariff issues with the United States,” analyzed Zhou Shixin. Bao Zhipeng commented, “The pressure felt by Thailand and Cambodia stems from other ASEAN countries gradually or soon reaching agreements with the United States. Many ASEAN countries are export-oriented economies, and the United States is their largest surplus source. The trade structure and even economic development depend to some extent on exports to the United States, which is one of the major drivers for pushing for negotiations.”
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However, the ceasefire is more akin to “necessary but not sufficient condition” for the upcoming trade negotiations between the two countries and the United States. Even if the Thai-Cambodian conflict ends, Trump will not be lenient due to the two countries’ compliance, reducing tariffs imposed on them. With August 1st approaching, whether Thailand and Cambodia have enough time to reach a tariff agreement with the United States is worth observing. After all, Malaysia, which presides over the negotiations between the two countries, has not reached a tariff agreement with the United States. Zhou Shixin stated.
In Bo Zhipeng’s view, the Thai-Cambodian conflict could serve as Trump’s political achievements, but from an objective perspective, it should not exaggerate the role of the United States in mediation. “This time, the United States may have played a certain role in mediation, but being an extraterritorial country, its direct interests and attention are limited. Although Thailand is a treaty ally of the United States, this matter did not touch upon the core strategic interests of the United States, and it is unlikely that the United States will invest too much resources.” As for the United States, “the issues of ASEAN and East Asia are not as important as tariffs and major power strategic competition, which is also why Trump used the phrase ‘keep the ceasefire and raise tariffs’ to express his stance.”
“This meeting also demonstrates that substantive interactions between ASEAN and the United States remain focused on tariff issues. The ASEAN side might hope to leverage cooperation during the conflict mediation to allow the United States to play a certain role, thereby securing more favorable conditions for subsequent tariff negotiations. From this perspective, such participation is not only diplomatic coordination but also strategically laying the groundwork for economic negotiations,” Bo Zhipeng analyzed.
A New Opportunity for ASEAN Construction or New Challenges?
According to a report by Global Times quoting the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), on the 28th, Hong Ma Nai thanked Anwar, Trump, and the Chinese government for participating in mediation at the meeting. Representatives from China and the United States were also present at the talks.
On the 27th, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed deep sorrow over the casualties caused by the conflict to the people of Cambodia and Thailand and offered sincere condolences.
Hopefully, both sides can start from the common interests of the peoples of the two countries, upholding the spirit of peace and good neighborliness, maintain calm and restraint, and quickly cease fire and resolve conflicts through dialogue and consultation to restore peace and stability in the border areas as soon as possible.
Zhou Shixin believes that “the statements made by various countries in the US, China, and Malaysia have also given the two nations a chance to step down, thereby avoiding greater harm.”
Malaysia, serving as the ASEAN Chairperson for this session, has initiated mediation. “The speed at which the relationship between Thailand and Cambodia is expected to recover may be faster than many people anticipate. On one hand, it stems from the consistent approach within ASEAN, and on the other hand, due to the close ties and mutual dependence between Thailand and Cambodia, such localized conflicts will not alter the basic pattern of regional cooperation,” Bao Zhipeng emphasized. Many Southeast Asian countries have historical grievances and contradictions, but overall, they maintain regional peace and stability, “which indicates that the ASEAN member states still have a strong consensus on their interests.”
According to BBC reports, until formal ceasefire negotiations are held, shells and rockets continue to fall along the borders of the two countries. Moreover, the destruction caused by the confrontations and exchanges over the past five days, along with the emotions stirred by casualties, will take longer to cool off. “After reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, whether it will be recognized by the frontline military and broad public opinion is also a question. Under the current circumstances where nationalist sentiments are high in both countries, temporarily suspending hostilities is beneficial,” said Zhou Shixin.
Cambodian civilians displaced from the Thai-Cambodian border area line up to receive food.
Statistics released by the Prime Minister’s Office of Thailand on the 27th show that as of the 27th, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in 14 civilian deaths and 8 soldiers killed, along with 37 civilian injuries. A total of 139,646 people have been evacuated from the affected border area.
柬埔寨国防部发言人马莉淑洁达28日表示，约13万名柬埔寨平民已逃离家园，同时约有40万名在泰柬籍务工人员已返回家园。
“从目前来看，两国领导人都同意停火，大致会有一个时间表和路线图，但要实现完全停火还是比较困难的。冲突已经造成了前线局势的变化，双方军人停留在原地还是回到冲突前的状态，以及如何处置冲突中人员和财产损伤等，都可能需要进一步谈判。两国军队中的任何一方如果对现状不满，或者提出额外要求，都有可能造成局势再次失控。”周士新说。
鲍志鹏进一步认为，“若这次停火最终真正落实，说明双方仍尊重东盟的原则、方式、信誉与地位。对东盟共同体建设来说，这或许是一次新的契机。”今年5月，东盟宣布包括统一贸易标准和加强金融一体化在内的战略规划，旨在让东盟成为世界第四大经济体。然而，2021年发酵至今的缅甸危机和7月爆发的柬泰冲突都给马来西亚担任主席国下的东盟愿景带来了阴影。