Translator’s Note: The original text was published by The Athletic, and the data cited are up to the date of publication (July 25th, local time) and have been converted into Beijing time. The views expressed in the article are not related to the translator or the platform.
Athletes like Jonathan Kuminga, who have been restricted free agents for nearly a month, rarely accept offer sheets—akin to a high-risk gamble, betting on their ability to return to their parent team with a one-year contract and reenter the market next summer. However, this strategy is uncommon for good reason.
Regarding Kuminga’s situation, he could continue negotiations with the Warriors—the team that selected him seventh overall in the 2021 NBA Draft. Alternatively, he could opt for an offer sheet worth $8 million for one year, returning to the Warriors for a year (during which he would be able to veto any trade), and then reentering the market as a fully unrestricted free agent next summer.
However, accepting an offer sheet could harm both parties, posing a risk for Kuminga and potentially a disaster for the Warriors—especially if the findings of The Athletic’s investigation are confirmed.
The Athletic recently conducted an investigation among 16 individuals working for competitors’ management teams, asking them what kind of contract they believe is “fair” for Kuminga under the current circumstances. To gain their candidness, respondents were assured anonymity. The answers ranged from an average annual value of $17 million to $25 million, with an average annual value of $20.4 million.
An executive proposed a two-year contract. Ten mentioned three years. Four said four years.
A person within the industry who appreciates Cumming’s games has proposed a massive contract, both in terms of duration and annual value: five years at $125 million.
He compared the 22-year-old player’s talent to that of Detroit Pistons’ defensive stalwart JaVale McGee, who signed a five-year, $131 million contract when he was in a similar situation.
“McGee has performed well in his role, but JK (Cumming) is more talented, and if he ever does perform, his ceiling could be even higher,” said the team executive.
Of course, despite Cumming’s obvious talent, his output fluctuated during the first four seasons. More importantly, McGee and Cumming are in different situations.
The restricted free agent market currently troubles four players: Cumming, Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey, Philadelphia 76ers’ Kendrick Nunn, and Brooklyn Nets’ Cameron Thomas. By late summer, other teams no longer have salary cap space. Therefore, the momentum for signing all four players has stalled.
According to league sources, the Warriors had sought potential sign-and-trade options for Cumming, but made no progress. A minor rule in the labor agreement known as “base salary compensation” determines how Cumming’s salary match will be calculated when he is traded, which will differ from how it would be calculated when he is acquired by a new team, making any sign-and-trade calculations complicated. As of now, the most likely scenario seems to be that all four players renew their contracts with their previous teams.
If Kuminga is dissatisfied with the contract offered by the Warriors, this presents the possibility of accepting a qualifying offer. This offer would allow him to receive significantly lower salaries than his market value within one year, but it would also grant him access to the free agency market in 2026, when there will be more teams with salary cap space and the ability to offer him a more lucrative contract. For restricted free agents, their former team has the right of first refusal, which allows them to match any offer with the same price to retain him, thereby suppressing his market value. If Kuminga were a fully unrestricted free agent, he could sign with any team at his discretion.
The executive who mentioned that Kuminga could sign a two-year contract—Kuminga averaged 15.3 points per game last season, playing only 24.3 minutes per game—was hesitant to suggest a short-term contract because he did not doubt Kuminga’s abilities. In fact, among the remaining four restricted free agents, Kuminga was the one he most favored to accept a qualifying offer.
Therefore, the executive proposed a compromise: a two-year deal worth $45 million.
“Kuminga is a perimeter player, so his minimum salary should be at the mid-level exception,” said the executive. “That’s why he can take the risk of accepting (a short-term contract) or a qualifying offer. (If he accepts the qualifying offer), there will be several teams with salary cap space next summer, and they might also be interested in him after failing to land big names.”
There have been instances where players accepted qualifying offers before. Sometimes, the outcome is very smooth. Ben Gordon did just that fifteen years ago, when he had an outstanding season with the Bulls and then received a high-paying contract from the Pistons in the second summer following his impressive performance.
Other times, such a choice is a disaster, just like Norlens Noel, who received a massive early contract extension but chose to reject it because it wasn’t the top salary and instead accepted a qualifying offer. As a result, he ended up signing only a minimum salary contract during the following off-season as a free agent.
However, there’s an argument that accepting a qualifying offer from the Warriors carries more risk than the individual facing it, as explained by an executive who suggested offering Cumming a three-year, $65 million contract.
“If he accepts a qualifying offer, from a team building perspective, the Warriors are done for, because they need him to sign a contract that can be traded,” said the executive. “That’s their key task.”
Since losing Chris Paul last summer, the Warriors, which finished 48 wins and 34 losses last season but were eliminated in the second round of the playoffs, have been searching for a replacement—not necessarily someone with a sharp head for the game, but rather someone whose salary is comparable to Paul. The NBA is currently where this is happening, with the most common way teams improve being through trades rather than free agency, and salary matching rules becoming stricter than ever before, making contracts above the mid-level but below the max salaries more valuable.
The Warriors acquired Paul partly because they needed to rejuvenate a salary bracket. They traded Jordan Poole for this future Hall of Famer, whose salary was slightly over $30 million in the 2023-24 season. When Paul signed with the Spurs last summer, that number dropped to zero.
All teams in the league are continuously trying to extend those middle-tier salary brackets as much as possible. Cumming’s status as a free agent gives the Warriors an opportunity to create a new chain.
Even if the Warriors do not consider Kuminga as part of their long-term plan—given his sometimes poor fit with the team’s system and the way they have managed to move him between starting lineups—they might still view him as valuable as a player.
The Warriors might need a player in this salary range more than any other team.
In their roster, there are three players whose annual salaries exceed $20 million: Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, both holding top-tier contracts, and Draymond Green, who will earn $25.9 million for the new season and is the team’s cornerstone. Moses Moody and Baron Davis, who can contribute next season, will each earn $11.6 million and $9.2 million respectively. The remaining salary figures then plummet significantly. Brandon Ingram’s salary essentially equals that of an established veteran. The salaries of the remaining three players are even lower.
The Warriors need players, and they need an ideal contract between Moody and Butler’s salaries, which could provide them with a tool to acquire key players mid-season.
Kuminga is young, talented, and has enough admirers within the league to meet these requirements.
“(Among these four restricted players), my confidence in (Kumang) is the lowest, especially considering the Warriors’ need for tradeable salary. His contract value and player value seem to be the most mismatched,” said a participant who suggested offering Kumang a three-year $53.5 million contract (including a player option). “I personally would give him a contract slightly higher than Grimes’s salary, but I think the final contract amount will be higher—about 12% of the salary cap, with a base salary around $18 million, bringing more valuable tradeable salary to the Warriors through a ‘2+1′ contract.”
However, this contract is one of the milder ones mentioned in the survey.
There was a two-year contract with an overly high salary, which is $22.5 million per season.
The total amount of the four three-year contracts ranged from $51 million to $60 million. Two people proposed a three-year $65 million plan, while another person mentioned a three-year $68 million plan, and another person claimed a three-year $70 million plan.
Out of the ten respondents offering three-year contracts, five included player options in their agreements.
Their rationale follows the same logic: If Kumang cannot get a massive contract today, short-term flexibility could help him quickly secure one. In such cases, Kumang could play two more seasons under this contract before entering the market again in 2027, by which time he would become a free agent and possibly have more teams with salary cap space.
“If I were an agent, I would strive for a short-term contract so that I could leave there and go somewhere else, but at the same time, I could make some money during that period,” said a team executive who suggested signing a three-year $65 million contract.
Negotiators often use comparable contracts to measure the value their clients deserve. Considering this, when suggesting a three-year contract worth $70 million in guarantees and an annual salary of $23.3 million for Kouminta, the executive mentioned another young, aggressive scorer.
A year ago, when a player from the same 2021 draft class as Kouminta was eligible for an early extension, he ultimately reached a significant deal with his team—although, for a second-round pick, it wasn’t as generous as one might have imagined.
Jared Green signed a three-year, $105 million contract with the Rockets, which will take effect this season. Kouminta has yet to prove he can reach the heights of Green. At that time, the Rockets’ salary situation was more flexible than it is now with the Warriors. But the philosophy remains the same.
These are two players of similar age and exceptional talent who can explode at any moment, but their scoring-first approach has sparked mixed reactions, including from their own teams.
“It feels like a Jared Green-style contract, which maintains his tradeability,” said the team executive who suggested signing a three-year, $70 million contract. “It’s definitely less than what he might have wanted, but the player options give him some choices.”
Right, and if Kouminta signs such a contract, he and Green might share another commonality: just a month ago, Jared Green was traded by the Rockets after reaching an extension with them a year prior.
Because the Rockets had his salary available, they only needed to add another key player, Dillon Brooks, in exchange for Kevin Durant. Green’s mid-level salary facilitated the acquisition of a superstar.
Having the greatest scorer among a generation is the best scenario.
However, this is an example of how contracts like Green’s, especially those belonging to young players with room for growth, can provide teams with flexibility in retaining options.
The Warriors would hope to maintain flexibility, ready to seize opportunities for immediate upgrades, especially given that Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green are all in their 35s to 40s. Kuminga, like anyone else, would want a substantial compensation package.
Even though the restricted free market feels oppressive to everyone involved, both parties can still find a worthwhile compromise.