On the evening of July 25th, hundreds of people gathered in front of the Japanese Prime Minister’s official residence, not to protest but to support Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga with slogans such as “Never Give Up” and “Keep Going.”
On July 29th, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga addressed the media at the Prime Minister’s Residence. According to a poll released by Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun on the 28th, the support rate for Suga’s cabinet has risen by five percentage points since the end of last month; he leads in the poll for “the most suitable next prime minister.”
In the Senate election held on July 20th, the discontent among the Japanese public with the current situation and their desire for change coalesced into an undeniable “public opinion tsunami,” causing a sudden shift in the Japanese political landscape. The long-term ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito Party alliance lost their majority in both houses of Congress. On July 23rd, Japanese media reported that Suga was set to resign before August ended, only hours later, he personally denied the rumors of his resignation.
However, facing internal pressure from the party, how long can Suga hold on? This Senate election has comprehensively pushed Japan’s politics into a new paradigm of “smaller parties on the left and larger parties on the right,” prompting questions about Japan’s future direction.
The fragmentation of the parliament: Japan’s “new normal”
In this election, the LDP and Komeito Party failed to secure a majority in the Senate, contrasting sharply with the emergence of non-mainstream parties such as the National Democratic Party and smaller parties with varying degrees of conservatism or populism, successfully breaking through the relatively fixed party structure over the years. This signifies a reshuffle in political power, leading Japan towards a “fragmented” new normal.
The fragmentation of the parliament is not without precedent. In the early post-war period, with democratic reforms and the lifting of party bans, there coexisted five major liberal, progressive, collaborative, socialist, and numerous small-scale parties, presenting a scene of “a multitude of parties.”
彼时，以自由、进步、协同三党为代表的保守势力和以社会、共产两党为主的革新势力，共同构建了战后日本最初的政治对立轴。
尽管1955年在美国与日本财界的共同推动下，保守系政党迅速整合成立了自民党，奠定了“55年体制”下长期执政的基础。但表面“一党独大”的自民党内部的派阀集团犹如“党中之党”，且各派阀政策理念与背后支持团体各不相同，其内部的复杂性与动态平衡本身就带有某种程度的“碎片化”特征。
上世纪90年代，伴随冷战坚冰的消融和日本经济泡沫的轰然破裂，使日本的政治生态进入一个剧烈动荡的转型期，政治精英们曾试图仿效美国，构建稳定的保守派两大政党格局。但事与愿违，政治改革进程并未走向稳定，反而经历了持续的分裂、整合与再分裂的“碎片化”进程。
一方面，社会党、共产党等传统革新力量持续不振，导致日本政坛在冷战后未能建立起有效的意识形态对抗轴。无论是1993年取自民党而代之的细川护熙八党派联合政权，还是1996年之后短暂崛起的民主党，均未能成功整合在野党阵营。选民即便对自民党心怀不满，也难以找到一个强有力的替代选项。
另一方面，在前首相安倍长期执政时期，自民党虽再度确立政坛“一强多弱”之态，安倍在党内也一度压制了派阀影响力。但安倍死后，派阀平衡与内耗迅速回归。近年来，自民党对“统一教”丑闻的遮掩，在处理政治黑金问题上的难有作为，严重侵蚀了国民对自公联盟政权的信任。
最终，从去年的众议院选举，到今年的东京都议会选举、参议院选举，不满的民意如决堤的洪水迅速流向新兴政治势力。
右翼政治光谱多元化：从边缘走向中央
本届参议院选举中，右翼政治光谱的深刻变迁引人关注。国民民主党改选席位从上届的4席大幅增加至17席，总席位达到22席。该党聚焦普罗大众最为关心的“增加到手工资”这一民生议题，凭借务实又温和的改革主张以及对实用主义政策的专注，成功将无党派选民对自公联盟的不满转化成党势扩张的动能，超越公明党成为参议院第三党。这不仅是数字上的增长，更是国民民主党作为不可忽视的中间力量，在日本政坛站稳脚跟的鲜明信号。
与此同时，参政党用极具煽动性的“日本人优先”口号激发部分选民狂热支持，一举夺下14个席位，总席位达到15席，跃升至参议院第六党。紧随其后，新成立的保守党也首次成功迈入国会大门，斩获2个席位。这两股力量的崛起，清晰地反映出日本的民粹主义已经不再是传统意义上的“小众”声音，右翼势力正经历一场深刻的多元化转型，积极抢夺政治话语权。
相较之下，传统在野党立宪民主党，在总席位上虽仍是第二大党，但在改选中仅获得22席，凸显其在争取更广泛选民支持方面的局限性。预示着传统在野党在日本政治碎片化的浪潮下面临被边缘化的风险。
右翼势力逼宫下石破茂能否“坚守”
石破内阁从去年成立到现在，已经接连在众议院、东京都议会选举、参议院选举中遭遇“三连败”。
Facing such severe public dissatisfaction, Shigeru Ishiba explicitly stated that he would “humbly and sincerely accept” the election results. However, considering Japan is currently facing multiple domestic and international challenges, a change in prime minister could lead to greater political turmoil and power vacuum. He also emphasized the Liberal Democratic Party’s mission as “the largest party in the Diet” and its responsibility towards the nation, expressing his willingness to continue governing.
However, within the Liberal Democratic Party, there has been a constant wave of criticism against Ishiba. High-ranking party officials and various local organizations have also proposed resignation requests. Nonetheless, it seems that this is not solely Ishiba’s fault. The immediate reason for the election defeat was the strong public dissatisfaction with continuous rising prices and stagnant income growth. Deeper down, the underlying reason lies in the old political order and structural dilemmas within the Liberal Democratic Alliance.
Before the exposure of political black money scandals and the dissolution of factions, internal struggles among factions within the Liberal Democratic Party were never ceased. This endless internal strife greatly distracted the political elite from their focus on national governance. The ruling partner, Komeito, also faced its own difficulties: after the death of Seiji Nakamura, the third head of the Rissho Koshukan, whose core support base weakened, and the party’s position became unclear, these factors collectively led to the overall defeat in this election.
However, amidst the current political whirlpool, a fascinating phenomenon is emerging. In recent days, facing the trend of internal supporters like Hirofumi Kato, who are pushing for the rise of extreme right-wing figures, there has unexpectedly emerged a call for Ishiba to continue governing on Japanese social media. On social media, the tag #ShigeruYamaguchiNoShun (Stop Shigeru Ishiba) spread rapidly, reflecting the public’s deep concern about Japan’s politics potentially further moving towards extremism.
The opposition party “Keidanren no Shinkaisetsu” leader, Tetsuo Yamashita, frankly pointed out: “The problem is, if he doesn’t continue, who will?
“He believes that despite Shirakawa’s economic policies not meeting expectations, he is a safe choice under the current complex situation,” he said.
On the evening of July 25th, hundreds of people spontaneously gathered in front of the Prime Minister’s residence, holding up slogans such as “Never Give Up” and “Keep Going”, demonstrating solidarity through action. Among them was Koga Masao, an opponent supporter in his 70s, who believed that “(Shirakawa) is much better than Kishida and Koizumi, among others,” and emphasized that “if the Kishida cabinet becomes reality, it will further foster the rise of extreme right-wing parties like the Liberal Democratic Party.” This reflects that in some people’s minds, Shirakawa has become the “last line of defense” against more radical political forces taking power.
The fragmentation of the Diet, the diversification of the right, and the dilemma of minority governments
Currently, the Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority in both houses of the Diet, becoming a true “minority government”. Despite the increasing diversification of the right-wing parties, there still exists a “distance” between traditional opposition parties that makes the “opposition coalition” situation somewhat maintain the fragile existence of the minority government.
The dilemma of the minority government lies in the fact that if Shirakawa continues to control Japan, any legislative push by the Cabinet in the Diet will face unprecedented resistance. Every bill submitted by the Cabinet may be forced to make significant and painful concessions to the opposition. With their majority in the Diet, opposition parties can repeatedly exercise the right to reconsider bills, delaying their amendments, vetoes, or even deliberately slowing down their pace (note: The Japanese opposition parties use this strategy to prolong the voting process, referring to it as “as slow as a cow walking” due to media descriptions). This allows bills to face the risk of being shelved indefinitely.
Under the new normal of fragmented Congressional landscape and right-wing diversification, it has become exceptionally difficult for Congress to form a cohesive alternative policy agenda. Now that the ruling coalition has lost its majority seats and lacks the strong assistance from key third parties, the difficulty in governing has surged, potentially leading to the entanglement of legislation with “one case, one proposal”. This means that every policy will require significant transaction costs and lengthy consultation time, severely hindering decision-making efficiency.
The political stage in Japan today is witnessing a complex drama of seeking integration amidst fragmentation and seeking balance amidst uncertainty. The ultimate direction of this drama not only tests Shigeru Ishiba’s political wisdom and resilience but also profoundly influences Japan’s future national trajectory.