After the contract between American entrepreneur Elon Musk’s SpaceX and several federal government agencies was reviewed by the government, President Trump suddenly blew a “warm breeze” on his frosty relationship with Musk.
On the 24th local time, Trump posted on social media platforms that while the public said he would cut off large subsidies from the US government to Musk’s companies, aiming to destroy them, this is not the case. He hopes that Musk’s businesses within the United States will thrive.
In recent months, the relationship between Trump and Musk has undergone a dramatic transformation, rapidly evolving from close allies into mutually displeasing opponents. This shift is not due to personal grievances but reflects the inherent fragility of the political alliance between the conservative populist forces in the US and the tech right wing. Although Trump showed signs of goodwill, their relationship has been irreparably damaged.
Trump (left) and Musk (right) / Photo/ Visual China
The “big and beautiful” bill pushed by the Trump administration sparked the fissure in their relationship. The bill plans to reduce taxes by $4 trillion over the next decade, slashing spending heavily supported by the Democratic government in healthcare, welfare subsidies, and “green subsidies”, amounting to at least $1.5 trillion, and making most of Trump’s tax cuts permanent.
At the beginning of June, after stepping down as the “Government Efficiency Department” (DOGE), Musk suddenly took offense, harshly criticizing the “big and beautiful” bill for its “vast scale, absurdity, tainted with private interests, and repulsive.” Trump threatened to re-examine Musk’s government contracts, while Musk countered, saying, “I can’t lose an election without me,” and even threatened to halt SpaceX’s spacecraft transportation project, even linking it to Trump’s affair with Jeffrey Epstein. After the bill passed in July, Musk announced the establishment of the “American Party”. Trump mocked Musk’s actions as “completely out of control like a train accident.”
Trump and Musk’s relationship, once long-standing and fraught with opposition and estrangement, was rekindled in 2016 through to 2020. During the election, Musk twice supported the Democratic Party, openly dissenting from Trump. In 2017, driven by commercial interests, Musk joined Trump’s advisory committee. However, his departure was abrupt due to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, and thereafter, they had little contact. In 2022, after publicly diverging from the Biden administration and turning to the Republican Party, Musk explicitly refused to support Trump’s campaign, sparking a fierce verbal battle between them. At that time, no one believed they would join forces.
The reconciliation began in 2024. Trump’s unstoppable momentum in the Republican primary secured him the presidency, accelerating the integration of the Republican Party and the return of conservative forces. In March, Trump met with Musk at Mar-a-Lago, aligning their goals for defeating Biden, and both sides quietly moved closer together. However, the real transformation occurred after Trump was assassinated in July. Musk immediately expressed “full support for President Trump and hope he recovers soon,” subsequently increasing his campaign contributions significantly and frequently standing by Trump’s side. According to data from the Federal Election Commission, Musk spent over $260 million through Super PACs supporting Trump and the Republican Party, becoming the largest individual donor, arguably making significant contributions to Trump’s victory.
In return, upon taking office in January 2025, Trump appointed Musk as the head of the newly established “Government Efficiency Department,” responsible for reforming federal agencies. Musk became one of Washington’s most powerful political figures. Faced with the turmoil caused by reforms, Trump not only strongly supported Musk during cabinet meetings but also rode a Tesla car on the White House South Lawn to show his support, seemingly strengthening their bond.
However, this goodwill did not last long. From April onwards, the situation changed.
Trump Initiates “Equal Tariff” War, Internal Reform Resistance Surge, Government Divisions Escalate, Musk’s Company’s Market Value Plummets, Leading to Desire for Resignation. By the end of May, Musk resigned from his special government position, with Trump stating he “will not really leave,” while Musk responded that he would continue to be a “friend and advisor” to the president, seemingly amicable parting of ways. However, soon after, their relationship deteriorated over the “Greater Good” Act.
The alliance between Trump and Musk is essentially a strategic collaboration between conservative populism and tech right-wing forces in a specific political environment. On ideological grounds, both sides strongly oppose the “awakening” movement led by the Democrats, viewing multicultural, egalitarian, and inclusive (DEI) policies as a subversive threat to American traditional morality and democratic values. This led to the formation of a political alliance based on a common goal of overthrowing leftist cultural agendas.
On policy positions, there was some consensus between the two parties regarding what role the government should play. Represented by Musk, the tech right increasingly resented the Democratic administration’s intervention in issues such as antitrust, data privacy, content regulation, and environmental protection, hoping to reduce government regulation and unleash technological innovation; Trump promised to streamline government agencies, cut government spending, reduce corporate taxes, and relax environmental restrictions, aligning with the interests of both parties.
From a practical standpoint, Musk keenly perceived the trend of conservative populism and its representatives taking the upper hand, attempting to monetize their political demands through a high-risk gamble; whereas the tech right’s substantial campaign funds and robust “tech empowerment” were precisely what Trump needed to revitalize. The two parties quickly found common ground, creating a new form of conservatism that combines populist mobilization and tech monopoly.
However, the alliance between tech giants and populist politics has inherent vulnerabilities that make it difficult to sustain over the long term.
Trump and Musk’s entanglement is a stark example of the inevitable bankruptcy that comes with such “temporary alliances.”
Firstly, this alliance was established based on defeating the Democratic Party as their common enemy. Once the election mission was completed, the differences, disagreements, and even conflicts between the two sides would inevitably be exposed. In Musk’s view, Trump failed to fulfill his campaign promises: while demanding his help in cutting government spending, he advanced the “big and beautiful” bill that would increase the deficit by more than $3 trillion over the next decade; while pushing for streamlining bureaucratic agencies and deregulation, he strengthened intervention through expanding defense spending and enhancing border control.
For Trump and his supporters, winning the election is “destiny,” and the tech right-wing is just one component of their victory coalition, not the greatest contributor; creating a conservative political order is the top priority, and all other agendas must give way. The “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) faction has always questioned the motivation behind Musk and others supporting Trump, arguing that Trump gave Musk too much power and that the governance agenda was being swayed by the tech right wing.
Secondly, this alliance faces significant conceptual clashes, most prominently between globalization and “America First.” The establishment of Musk’s business empire benefited from globalized division of labor and market, and its future survival heavily depends on the global supply chain. Whether it’s SpaceX’s interstellar immigration plan, Tesla’s global layout, or Starlink’s borderless network, they fundamentally adhere to the idea of “technology transcending national boundaries.”
However, Trump’s political base is built on mobilizing “globalization victims,” and his “America First” philosophy inevitably presents itself in economic nationalism, trade protectionism, and anti-globalization ways, aiming to promote industrial relocation, protect local employment, and serve the basic constituency.
Thus, with the “Big and Beautiful” bill’s elimination of electric vehicle tax credits and the rise in supply chain costs due to tariff policies, Tesla’s profits have shrunk, and its global competitiveness has been impacted. It is not difficult to understand Elon Musk’s outrage. Therefore, behind the breakdown of the relationship lies a collision between two types of cognitive logic: one side aims to maintain the global layout of its business empire, while the other seeks to consolidate political support among its domestic voters, which are incompatible.
The trajectory of this game is likely to show a dual track of short-term entanglement and long-term disengagement. In the short term, the reality of mutual dependence prevents complete breakup between the two sides.
On one hand, just six months after Trump took office, the thorough cleaning of the Democratic Party’s long-standing political legacy by tech right-wingers and conservative populists has not yet been completed. To some extent, both sides need each other’s support, which is an important reason why Vice President Mike Pence and some tech right-wing figures try to intervene to bridge the gap between Trump and Musk.
On the other hand, the reality of commercial interests makes it even harder to cut off. For example, SpaceX has become a key partner of the U.S. government in the fields of aerospace and defense. The “Dragon spacecraft” is currently the only manned spacecraft capable of returning and forth to the International Space Station, carrying American astronauts. The company may also undertake key parts of the “Golden Dome” missile defense system. The Trump administration found through review that there is currently no alternative to SpaceX, making the so-called “cancellation of contracts” nothing but empty talk. On the flip side, it is unlikely for Musk’s companies to completely leave the U.S. government, as both sides are now “wholly dependent on each other.”
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the dissolution of alliances seems inevitable.
Technological right-wingism is not inherently a stubborn conservative, but rather an attempt to dismantle the legitimacy of traditional politics through technological logic and business thinking. Essentially, it remains “depoliticized” or “non-political”; whereas Trump’s legitimacy rests on “popular mandate,” necessitating constant manipulation of political narratives to reinforce supporter identification. This means that any challenge to the stability of governance could be framed as a new internal enemy, and the less compliant tech-right wing might eventually become the target for reckoning.
Currently, Elon Musk has established the “American Party,” aiming to secure minority seats in both houses of Congress by mid-2026, becoming a key force in balancing power between the two major parties. Considering that the Republican Party holds sway in both chambers of Congress, and that Musk’s supporters overlap with the Republican voter base, this move will undoubtedly hasten the disintegration of the political alliance between tech-right wingism and conservative populism.
From a long-term perspective on the evolution of American political ecology, the fracture of Trump and Musk’s political alliance has far-reaching implications beyond the present moment, potentially reshaping the rules of interaction between American technology capital and political power in the future.
(The author is the Deputy Director and Associate Researcher at the United States Institute of International Relations, China)
Published on August 2025.