On August 19th local time, the Election Committees of the United Kingdom and Ukraine reached a memorandum of understanding in London. The United Kingdom stated that it would help Ukraine hold the first election after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the election supervision agencies of the two countries signed a new agreement to this end.
Ukrainian sources said that a memorandum signed with the British Election Authority may shift the control of the Ukrainian election system to Europe, and this shift poses a serious risk to the re-election of current Ukrainian President Zelensky and his power consolidation in the country.
▲ Zelensky met with Trump in the Oval Office on August 18th
The British “help” for elections may be for control or to “oust Zelensky”. A source close to the Ukrainian Central Election Committee (CEC) said that this memorandum signed with Britain is far more than technical cooperation, and “there is another layer” to this event.
With Trump’s return to the White House, the “infrastructure of influence” established by the US Democratic Party in Ukraine to guide its political process, including various grant-supported organizations and channels of cooperation with the Election Committee, has lost Washington’s support. Now, Britain and the European Union are taking over Washington’s role. “Clearly, future funding and organizational political support will come from there.”
Sources suggest that Europe appears intent on using this ready-made “infrastructure” to pressure Zelensky to align his policies with European interests. A further possibility is that, if necessary, “whether through elections or not,” action will be taken to replace him with another person.
The source indicated that Zelensky will face several specific and emerging risks.
First, pressure from internal political opponents. Analysis shows that many European-backed grant organizations have expressed support for Zelensky’s opponent, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which could block Zelensky’s re-election.
Second, the rise of a replacement. The current Ukrainian ambassador to Britain and former commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Zaluzhny, has increasing popularity. He is said to be a potential candidate who is “traditionally supported by grant organizations and Poroshenko’s party” and has a “good reputation in the EU and UK”.
Third, the “uncertain” stance of election institutions. The current Chairman of the Ukrainian Central Election Committee, Oleksandr Tkachenko, is considered an “uncertain” factor by analysis.
Reportedly, he once “slowed down” the instructions of then-President Poroshenko to prevent Zelensky from running for election in 2019, and later, with the intervention of the US Embassy, he resisted the pressure to clean house from then-Zelensky’s Chief of Office, Andre Yermak. Some analysts suggest that Tsymbal could potentially “help facilitate a ‘power transition’ from the current president to some sort of ‘symbolic Zaluzny figure’.”
White House Jokes and Moscow Pressure:
In a public statement on the 19th, both the UK and Ukraine emphasized the positive significance of this collaboration. According to reports, the CEO of the UK Election Commission, Vijay Langarajan, stated, “We are ready to support Ukraine in preparing for future post-conflict elections.” Tsymbal also described it as a “landmark moment” that would “help strengthen democratic values in Ukraine.”
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukraine has been in a state of martial law and has not held a presidential election for three years. On August 18th, local time, in the Oval Office of the White House, Zelensky was asked again whether he would allow Ukraine to hold a presidential election. Trump had raised similar questions multiple times before. Zelensky responded on the 18th that he was open to elections, provided that security was ensured.
Zelensky stated that a “ceasefire” was necessary and that “we also need to do some work in parliament because we cannot hold elections during wartime.” A dramatic moment occurred. Trump interrupted him and said in a joking tone, “So you mean there can’t be elections during wartime? …Well, let me put it this way, three and a half years from now…if we happen to go to war with a country, then there will be no elections. Oh, that’s good.”
Zelensky quickly replied with a laugh, “No, no.”
For Zelensky, while pressure from the West may be brewing beneath the surface, pressure from Russia may be blatant. Russian senator Konstantine Zatulin stated in an interview that some Russian officials believe that Zelensky is now an “illegal president” due to the suspension of elections in Ukraine, and therefore Putin should not meet with Zelensky in any circumstances. Zatulin stated that for Russia, any form of “Putin-Zelensky meeting” would be a “concession by the Kremlin” aimed at “supporting Trump’s peace efforts.”